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Fair measures of performance: the World Cup of cricket

Author

Listed:
  • S R Clarke

    (Swinburne University of Technology)

  • P Allsopp

    (Swinburne University of Technology)

Abstract

Luck can play a big part in tournament success, and progress is not necessarily the best measure of performance. A linear model is used to fit least squares ratings to margins of victory in the cricket World Cup. The Duckworth/Lewis rain interruption rules are used to project a winning second innings score and create a margin of victory in runs, equivalent to that used when the team batting first wins. Results show that, while the better teams progressed through the first round of the competition, some injustices occurred in the Super-Six round. This appears to be due to the double counting of selected matches. Ordering teams by average margin of victory gives similar results to the more complicated linear model, and its use as a tie breaker is suggested. Publication of the margin of victory as estimated by the Duckworth/Lewis method for second innings victories in all one-day matches would provide a common margin of victory suitable for analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • S R Clarke & P Allsopp, 2001. "Fair measures of performance: the World Cup of cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 52(4), pages 471-479, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:52:y:2001:i:4:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601092
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601092
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abhinav Sacheti & Ian Gregory-Smith & David Paton, 2016. "Managerial Decision Making Under Uncertainty," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 44-63, January.
    2. P Dawson & B Morley & D Paton & D Thomas, 2009. "To bat or not to bat: An examination of match outcomes in day-night limited overs cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1786-1793, December.
    3. Colin Cannonier & Bibhudutta Panda & Sudipta Sarangi, 2015. "20-Over Versus 50-Over Cricket," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 760-783, October.
    4. Chris Goumas, 2013. "Modelling home advantage in sport: A new approach," International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 428-439, August.
    5. Asif, M. & McHale, I.G., 2019. "A generalized non-linear forecasting model for limited overs international cricket," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 634-640.
    6. Anthony J. Vine, 2016. "Using Pythagorean Expectation to Determine Luck in the KFC Big Bash League," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(3), pages 269-281, September.
    7. S Lessmann & M-C Sung & J E V Johnson, 2011. "Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of efficiency in a speculative market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(12), pages 2120-2132, December.
    8. Hemanta Saikia, 2020. "Quantifying the Current Form of Cricket Teams and Predicting the Match Winner," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(2), pages 151-158, May.
    9. F C Duckworth & A J Lewis, 2004. "A successful operational research intervention in one-day cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(7), pages 749-759, July.
    10. Sarah Jewell & J. James Reade & Carl Singleton, 2020. "It's Just Not Cricket: The Uncontested Toss and the Gentleman's Game," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    11. P. E. Allsopp & Stephen R. Clarke, 2004. "Rating teams and analysing outcomes in one‐day and test cricket," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(4), pages 657-667, November.

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