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Prediction from ARFIMA models: Comparisons between MLE and semiparametric estimation procedures

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  • Baillie, Richard T.
  • Kongcharoen, Chaleampong
  • Kapetanios, George

Abstract

This paper considers the effects on multi-step prediction of using semiparametric local Whittle estimators rather than MLE for long memory ARFIMA models. We consider various representations of the minimum MSE predictor with known parameters. We then conduct a detailed simulation study for when the true parameters are replaced with estimates. The predictor based on MLE is found to be superior, in the MSE sense, to the predictor based on the two-step local Whittle estimation. The “optimal” bandwidth local Whittle estimator produces worse predictions than the local Whittle using an agnostic bandwidth of the square root of the sample size.

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  • Baillie, Richard T. & Kongcharoen, Chaleampong & Kapetanios, George, 2012. "Prediction from ARFIMA models: Comparisons between MLE and semiparametric estimation procedures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:1:p:46-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.012
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