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Prediction And Signal Extraction Of Strongly Dependent Processes In The Frequency Domain

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  • Hidalgo, J.
  • Yajima, Y.

Abstract

We frequently observe that one of the aims of time series analysts is to predict future values of the data. For weakly dependent data, when the model is known up to a finite set of parameters, its statistical properties are well documented and exhaustively examined. However, if the model was misspecified, the predictors would no longer be correct. Motivated by this observation and because of the interest in obtaining adequate and reliable predictors, Bhansali (1974, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 36, 61–73) examined the properties of a nonparametric predictor based on the canonical factorization of the spectral density function given in Whittle (1963, Prediction and Regulation by Linear Least Squares) and known as FLES.However, the preceding work does not cover the so-called strongly dependent data. Because of the interest in this type of processes, one of our objectives in this paper is to examine the properties of the FLES for these processes. In addition, we illustrate how the FLES can be adapted to recover the signal of a strongly dependent process, showing its consistency. The proposed method is semiparametric in the sense that, in contrast to other methods, we do not need to assume any particular model for the noise except that it is weakly dependent.

Suggested Citation

  • Hidalgo, J. & Yajima, Y., 2002. "Prediction And Signal Extraction Of Strongly Dependent Processes In The Frequency Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 584-624, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:18:y:2002:i:03:p:584-624_18
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    Cited by:

    1. Arteche, Josu & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2017. "Singular Spectrum Analysis for signal extraction in Stochastic Volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 85-98.
    2. Abhimanyu Gupta & Javier Hidalgo, 2020. "Nonparametric prediction with spatial data," Papers 2008.04269, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    3. repec:cep:stiecm:/2013/563 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Arteche, Josu & Orbe, Jesus, 2016. "A bootstrap approximation for the distribution of the Local Whittle estimator," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 645-660.
    5. Arteche, Josu & Orbe, Jesus, 2017. "A strategy for optimal bandwidth selection in Local Whittle estimation," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 3-17.
    6. Baillie, Richard T. & Kongcharoen, Chaleampong & Kapetanios, George, 2012. "Prediction from ARFIMA models: Comparisons between MLE and semiparametric estimation procedures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-53.
    7. Hidalgo, Javier & Souza, Pedro, 2013. "Testing for equality of an increasing number of spectral density functions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58195, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2009. "Whittle estimation of EGARCH and other exponential volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 190-200, August.
    9. Naoya Katayama, 2008. "Asymptotic prediction of mean squared error for long-memory processes with estimated parameters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 690-720.

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