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Market timing with moving average distance: International evidence

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  • Abudy, Menachem Meni
  • Kaplanski, Guy
  • Mugerman, Yevgeny

Abstract

We explore the ability of the distance between short- and long-run moving averages, called MAD, to predict future returns of international market-wide indices. MAD portfolios yield abnormal profits after transaction costs, which do not reverse in the long run. This suggests that anchoring to long-run moving averages is a global phenomenon that applies also to market-wide indices. The annualized MAD portfolios’ alpha values are double-digit, with Sharpe ratios significantly higher than the global benchmarks. Similar results for developed economies and developed markets indicate that international diversification is still effective and offers significant economic benefits even among developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Abudy, Menachem Meni & Kaplanski, Guy & Mugerman, Yevgeny, 2024. "Market timing with moving average distance: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:97:y:2024:i:c:s1042443124001318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2024.102065
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Moving average; Anchoring; International markets; Trading strategies; Abnormal profits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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