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The performance of moving average rules in emerging stock markets

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  • S. G. M. Fifield
  • D. M. Power
  • D. G. S. Knipe

Abstract

The question of whether active trading strategies outperform the more naive approaches that are available to investors has returned to the research agenda. The topic had been hotly debated in the early and middle 1960s, but seemed to have been dispatched to the academic sidelines by proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, the developments in behavioural finance which recognize that individuals may make mistakes when valuing securities have revived interest in this topic. In addition, recent evidence has re-ignited the debate and there is now a new strand of literature which re-examines whether trading strategies based on historic information can yield profits. The current article builds on this recent body of evidence by examining moving average rules for 15 emerging and three developed markets over the period 1989-2003. The results indicate that the return behaviour of the emerging markets studied differed markedly from that of their developed market counterparts; moving average rules were more profitable when tested using emerging stock market indices. In addition, this profitability persisted for longer moving averages, suggesting that trends in share returns were larger and more persistent in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • S. G. M. Fifield & D. M. Power & D. G. S. Knipe, 2008. "The performance of moving average rules in emerging stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(19), pages 1515-1532.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:18:y:2008:i:19:p:1515-1532
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100701720302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yochanan Shachmurove & Uri BenZion & Paul Klein & Joseph Yagil, 2001. "A Moving Average Comparison of the Tel-Aviv 25 and S&P 500 Stock Indices," Penn CARESS Working Papers 4731f3394c43bebf4d3191c81, Penn Economics Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Supriya Bajpai, 2021. "Application of deep reinforcement learning for Indian stock trading automation," Papers 2106.16088, arXiv.org.
    2. J. Andrew Coutts, 2010. "Trading rules and stock returns: some further short run evidence from the Hang Seng 1997-2008," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(21), pages 1667-1672.
    3. Hesham I. Almujamed & Suzanne G. M. Fifield & David M. Power, 2018. "An Investigation of the Weak Form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis for the Kuwait Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, April.
    4. Guanqing Liu, 2019. "Technical Trading Behaviour: Evidence from Chinese Rebar Futures Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 669-704, August.
    5. Strobel, Marcus & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "Does the predictive power of variable moving average rules vanish over time and can we explain such tendencies?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 168-184.
    6. Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Have trend-following signals in commodity futures markets become less reliable in recent years?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 533-553, December.
    7. Dong-Her Shih & Ching-Hsien Liao & Ting-Wei Wu & Huan-Shuo Chang & Ming-Hung Shih, 2022. "WSI: A New Early Warning Water Survival Index for the Domestic Water Demand," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-19, November.
    8. Srivinay & B. C. Manujakshi & Mohan Govindsa Kabadi & Nagaraj Naik, 2022. "A Hybrid Stock Price Prediction Model Based on PRE and Deep Neural Network," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-11, April.
    9. Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David, 2018. "East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 402-424.
    10. Velimir Šonje & Denis Alajbeg & Zoran Bubas, 2011. "Efficient market hypothesis: is the Croatian stock market as (in)efficient as the U.S. market," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(3), pages 301-326.

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