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A marked Cox model for the number of IBNR claims: Theory

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  • Badescu, Andrei L.
  • Lin, X. Sheldon
  • Tang, Dameng

Abstract

Incurred but not reported (IBNR) loss reserving is an important issue for Property & Casualty (P&C) insurers. To calculate IBNR reserve, one needs to model claim arrivals and then predict IBNR claims. However, factors such as temporal dependence among claim arrivals and environmental variation are often not incorporated in many of the current loss reserving models, which may greatly affect the accuracy of IBNR predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Badescu, Andrei L. & Lin, X. Sheldon & Tang, Dameng, 2016. "A marked Cox model for the number of IBNR claims: Theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:69:y:2016:i:c:p:29-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.03.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Peng Shi & Glenn M. Fung & Daniel Dickinson, 2022. "Assessing hail risk for property insurers with a dependent marked point process," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(1), pages 302-328, January.
    3. Crevecoeur, Jonas & Antonio, Katrien & Verbelen, Roel, 2019. "Modeling the number of hidden events subject to observation delay," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(3), pages 930-944.
    4. Maciak, Matúš & Okhrin, Ostap & Pešta, Michal, 2021. "Infinitely stochastic micro reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 30-58.
    5. Kristian Buchardt & Christian Furrer & Oliver Lunding Sandqvist, 2022. "Transaction time models in multi-state life insurance," Papers 2209.06902, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    6. Richard J. Verrall & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2016. "Understanding Reporting Delay in General Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-36, July.
    7. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Rabehasaina, Landy & Woo, Jae-Kyung & Xu, Ran, 2019. "Asymptotic correlation structure of discounted Incurred But Not Reported claims under fractional Poisson arrival process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 276(2), pages 582-601.
    8. Benjamin Avanzi & Gregory Clive Taylor & Bernard Wong & Xinda Yang, 2020. "On the modelling of multivariate counts with Cox processes and dependent shot noise intensities," Papers 2004.11169, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    9. Jang, Jiwook & Qu, Yan & Zhao, Hongbiao & Dassios, Angelos, 2023. "A Cox model for gradually disappearing events," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112754, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Mat'uv{s} Maciak & Ostap Okhrin & Michal Pev{s}ta, 2019. "Infinitely Stochastic Micro Forecasting," Papers 1908.10636, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
    11. Stephan M. Bischofberger, 2020. "In-Sample Hazard Forecasting Based on Survival Models with Operational Time," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    12. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2021. "On the modelling of multivariate counts with Cox processes and dependent shot noise intensities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 9-24.
    13. Avanzi, Benjamin & Wong, Bernard & Yang, Xinda, 2016. "A micro-level claim count model with overdispersion and reporting delays," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Gao, Lisa & Shi, Peng, 2022. "Leveraging high-resolution weather information to predict hail damage claims: A spatial point process for replicated point patterns," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 161-179.

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