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Estimating the tails of loss severity via conditional risk measures for the family of symmetric generalised hyperbolic distributions

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  • Ignatieva, Katja
  • Landsman, Zinoviy

Abstract

This paper addresses one of the main challenges faced by insurance companies and risk management departments, namely, how to develop standardised framework for measuring risks of underlying portfolios and in particular, how to most reliably estimate loss severity distribution from historical data. This paper investigates tail conditional expectation (TCE) and tail variance premium (TVP) risk measures for the family of symmetric generalised hyperbolic (SGH) distributions. In contrast to a widely used Value-at-Risk (VaR) measure, TCE satisfies the requirement of the “coherent” risk measure taking into account the expected loss in the tail of the distribution while TVP incorporates variability in the tail, providing the most conservative estimator of risk. We examine various distributions from the class of SGH distributions, which turn out to fit well financial data returns and allow for explicit formulas for TCE and TVP risk measures. In parallel, we obtain asymptotic behaviour for TCE and TVP risk measures for large quantile levels. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to the multivariate framework, allowing multivariate distributions to model combinations of correlated risks, and demonstrate how TCE can be decomposed into individual components, representing contribution of individual risks to the aggregate portfolio risk.

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  • Ignatieva, Katja & Landsman, Zinoviy, 2015. "Estimating the tails of loss severity via conditional risk measures for the family of symmetric generalised hyperbolic distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 172-186.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:65:y:2015:i:c:p:172-186
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2015.09.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zinoviy Landsman & Emiliano Valdez, 2003. "Tail Conditional Expectations for Elliptical Distributions," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 55-71.
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    3. Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2010. "Using Dynamic Copulae for Modeling Dependency in Currency Denominations of a Diversifed World Stock Index," Research Paper Series 284, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    7. Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen, 2010. "Modelling Co-movements and Tail Dependency in the International Stock Market via Copulae," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(3), pages 261-302, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ignatieva, Katja & Landsman, Zinoviy, 2019. "Conditional tail risk measures for the skewed generalised hyperbolic family," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 98-114.
    2. Huang, Zhenzhen & Wei, Pengyu & Weng, Chengguo, 2024. "Tail mean-variance portfolio selection with estimation risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 218-234.
    3. Alexeev Vitali & Ignatieva Katja & Liyanage Thusitha, 2021. "Dependence Modelling in Insurance via Copulas with Skewed Generalised Hyperbolic Marginals," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Ignatieva, Katja & Landsman, Zinoviy, 2021. "A class of generalised hyper-elliptical distributions and their applications in computing conditional tail risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 437-465.
    5. Kim, Joseph H.T. & Kim, So-Yeun, 2019. "Tail risk measures and risk allocation for the class of multivariate normal mean–variance mixture distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 145-157.
    6. Jiang, Chun-Fu & Peng, Hong-Yi & Yang, Yu-Kuan, 2016. "Tail variance of portfolio under generalized Laplace distribution," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 282(C), pages 187-203.
    7. Eini, Esmat Jamshidi & Khaloozadeh, Hamid, 2021. "The tail mean–variance optimal portfolio selection under generalized skew-elliptical distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 44-50.
    8. Landsman, Zinoviy & Makov, Udi & Shushi, Tomer, 2018. "A multivariate tail covariance measure for elliptical distributions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 27-35.
    9. Baishuai Zuo & Chuancun Yin, 2020. "Conditional tail risk expectations for location-scale mixture of elliptical distributions," Papers 2007.09350, arXiv.org.

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