IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/rasset/v7y2017i1p43-80..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic and Financial Determinants of Credit Risk Premiums in the Sovereign CDS Market

Author

Listed:
  • Hitesh Doshi
  • Kris Jacobs
  • Virgilio Zurita

Abstract

We specify and estimate a no-arbitrage model for sovereign CDS contracts in which countries’ default intensities depend on economic and financial indicators. To facilitate identification and to distinguish the importance of local and global covariates, we estimate a model with three global and four local covariates using CDS spreads for five maturities and twenty-five countries. The model provides a good fit. The impact of the economic and financial variables on spreads is consistent with economic intuition, and substantially varies across countries and over time. Estimated risk premiums are highly variable and peak during the 2008 financial crisis for most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hitesh Doshi & Kris Jacobs & Virgilio Zurita, 2017. "Economic and Financial Determinants of Credit Risk Premiums in the Sovereign CDS Market," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 43-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:7:y:2017:i:1:p:43-80.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rapstu/rax009
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Wang & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Network structures and idiosyncratic contagion in the European sovereign credit default swap market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.
    3. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Yang, Lu, 2023. "Oil price bubbles: The role of network centrality on idiosyncratic sovereign risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic and Market Indicators in Explaining Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Spread Changes: Evidence from Türkiye," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 145-164, April.
    6. Hübel, Benjamin, 2022. "Do markets value ESG risks in sovereign credit curves?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 134-148.
    7. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Dongho Song, 2018. "Sovereign Credit Risk and Exchange Rates: Evidence from CDS Quanto Spreads," NBER Working Papers 24506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2018. "Sovereign credit spreads under good/bad governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-246.
    10. Pan, Wei-Fong & Wang, Xinjie & Xiao, Yaqing & Xu, Weike & Zhang, Jinfan, 2024. "The effect of economic and political uncertainty on sovereign CDS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 143-155.
    11. Xiaoqing Fu & Matthew C. Li & Philip Molyneux, 2021. "Credit default swap spreads: market conditions, firm performance, and the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2203-2225, May.
    12. J. Alsubaiei, Bader & Calice, Giovanni & Vivian, Andrew, 2021. "Sovereign CDS and mutual funds: Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Wei Huang & Shu Lin & Jian Yang, 2019. "Institutional quality and sovereign credit default swap spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 686-703, June.
    14. Della Corte, Pasquale & Jeanneret, Alexandre & Patelli, Ella D.S., 2023. "A credit-based theory of the currency risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 473-496.
    15. Lotfi, Somayyeh & Milidonis, Andreas & Zenios, Stavros A., 2024. "Mispricing of debt expansion in the eurozone sovereign credit market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    16. Andrade, Sandro C. & Ekponon, Adelphe & Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2023. "Sovereign risk premia and global macroeconomic conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 172-197.
    17. Sara Cecchetti, 2020. "An analysis of sovereign credit risk premia in the euro area: are they explained by local or global factors?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1271, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Ozcan Ceylan, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness among Sovereign CDS Premia," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 33-47, June.
    19. M. Utku Özmen, 2019. "Economic complexity and sovereign risk premia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1714-1726.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:rasset:v:7:y:2017:i:1:p:43-80.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/raps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.