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Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market

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  • Liu, Jinyu
  • Zhong, Rui

Abstract

Using a large sample of firms with single-name credit default swap (CDS) contracts in 30 countries, we document the evidence that political uncertainty, proxied by national election dummy, is positively related to firm-level credit risk. Specifically, this positive relation is more pronounced for the firms that have no political connection or poor international diversification, and in the countries with higher political uncertainty and lower investor protections. Further, by using a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence to support idiosyncratic volatility and debt rollover channels through which political uncertainty affects the credit risk of individual firm.

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  • Liu, Jinyu & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 53-66.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:30:y:2017:i:c:p:53-66
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2017.03.006
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    6. Xinjie Wang & Weike Xu & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, CDS spreads, and CDS liquidity provision," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 461-480, April.
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    8. Nguyen, Duc Nguyen & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Dang, Le Phuong Xuan, 2022. "Uncertainty and corporate default risk: Novel evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Ben-Nasr, Hamdi & Bouslimi, Lobna & Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Zhong, Rui, 2020. "Political uncertainty and the choice of debt sources," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
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    11. Almaghrabi, Khadija S., 2021. "Borrowing during periods of policy uncertainty: The role of foreign lenders," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Çiğdem Vural‐Yavaş, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty, stakeholder engagement, and environmental, social, and governance practices: The moderating effect of competition," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 82-102, January.
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    16. Tarkom, Augustine & Ujah, Nacasius U., 2023. "Inflation, interest rate, and firm efficiency: The impact of policy uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political uncertainty; National elections; Credit risk; Idiosyncratic volatility; Rollover risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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