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Political Business Cycles with Endogenous Election Timing: Evidence from Japan

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  • Cargill, Thomas F
  • Hutchison, Michael M

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the political business cycle hypothesis for Japan, taking into account the potential two-way interaction that originates from the control (within certain limitations) by the government over election timing of Japanese elections. Using a mixed qualitative and continuous variable simultaneous equation estimation procedure, the authors cannot reject the traditional political business cycle "manipulation" hypothesis (causation running from the timing of elections to real GNP growth). They also find some limited support for the "opportunistic" hypothesis (strong real GNP growth triggers elections). Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.

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  • Cargill, Thomas F & Hutchison, Michael M, 1991. "Political Business Cycles with Endogenous Election Timing: Evidence from Japan," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 733-739, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:73:y:1991:i:4:p:733-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcelin, Isaac & Stephen, Sheryl-Ann K. & Fanta, Fassil & Tecklezion, Mussie, 2019. "Political regimes, investment and electoral uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 580-599.
    2. António Caleiro, 2005. "On some of the consequences of being possible to call early elections," Economics Working Papers 4_2005, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    3. Masami Imai, 2009. "Political Determinants of Government Loans in Japan," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 41-70, February.
    4. Kausik Chaudhuri & Sugato Dasgupta, 2006. "The political determinants of fiscal policies in the states of India: An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 640-661.
    5. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    6. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    7. Kausik Chaudhuri & Sugato Dasgupta, 2005. "The political determinants of central governments' economic policies in India: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(7), pages 957-978.
    8. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    9. Antoinette Schoar & Ebonya L. Washington, 2011. "Are the Seeds of Bad Governance Sown in Good Times?," NBER Working Papers 17061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Voia, Marcel-Cristian & Ferris, J. Stephen, 2013. "Do business cycle peaks predict election calls in Canada?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 102-118.
    11. Wisniewski, Tomasz P. & Pathan, Saima K., 2014. "Political environment and foreign direct investment: Evidence from OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 13-23.
    12. Mohammad Abdul Munim Joarder & A. K. M. Nurul Hossain & Monir Uddin Ahmed, 2016. "Does the central bank contribute to the political monetary cycles in Bangladesh?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 365-394, November.
    13. Liu, Jinyu & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 53-66.
    14. Price, Simon, 1997. "Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-427, September.
    15. Diao, Mi & Sing, Tien Foo & Zhang, Xiaoyu, 2024. "The political economy of public housing upgrading programs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 369-389.
    16. Alastair Smith, 1996. "Endogenous Election Timing In Majoritarian Parliamentary Systems," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 85-110, July.
    17. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    18. Orazem, Peter F, 2017. "An Evaluation of the State of Iowa Revenue Forecasts, 1995 – 2017," ISU General Staff Papers 201712010800001036, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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