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Policy uncertainty, interest rate environment and the dynamic correlation between sovereign and bank default risk

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  • Bales, Stephan
  • Burghof, Hans-Peter

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of policy uncertainty and the interest rate environment on the sovereign-bank nexus considering 48 banks in 14 countries. By applying principal component analysis to bank CDS premia in a country, the dynamic conditional correlation between sovereign CDS premia and the common variation underlying bank CDS is specified. Fixed effects panel regression analysis shows that the sovereign-bank correlation significantly increases in times of great policy uncertainty, low bank interest margins, high interbank market rates, and a low ratio of bank Tier 1 capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Bales, Stephan & Burghof, Hans-Peter, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, interest rate environment and the dynamic correlation between sovereign and bank default risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:206:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521002603
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109983
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. De Bruyckere, Valerie & Gerhardt, Maria & Schepens, Glenn & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2013. "Bank/sovereign risk spillovers in the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4793-4809.
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    6. Bordo, Michael D. & Duca, John V. & Koch, Christoffer, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: Aggregate and bank level U.S. evidence over several decades," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 90-106.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bales, Stephan & Burghartz, Kaspar & Burghof, Hans-Peter & Hitz, Lukas, 2023. "Does the source of uncertainty matter? The impact of financial, newspaper and Twitter-based measures on U.S. banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn, 2022. "The urgency to borrow in the interbank market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    3. Gonçalves, Tiago & Barros, Victor & Serra, Gonçalo, 2022. "Political elections uncertainty and earnings management: Does firm size really matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    4. Martien Lamers & Thomas Present & Nicolas Soenen & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2023. "BRRD credibility and the bank-sovereign nexus," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1308-1313, June.
    5. Islam, Md Shahidul & Alam, Md Samsul & Bin Hasan, Shehub & Mollah, Sabur, 2022. "Firm-level political risk and distance-to-default," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign-bank nexus; Economic policy uncertainty; Interest rates; DCC-GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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