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Economic uncertainty and credit risk: Evidence from international corporate bonds

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  • Valenzuela, Patricio
  • Mella, Javier
  • Claveria, Juan

Abstract

Credit spreads are positively associated with economic policy uncertainty. This association is stronger in developing countries and countries with French-origin legal systems and worse sovereign credit ratings. This relation is also stronger for firms that usually face worse credit conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Valenzuela, Patricio & Mella, Javier & Claveria, Juan, 2024. "Economic uncertainty and credit risk: Evidence from international corporate bonds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:237:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524001496
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111666
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreasen, Eugenia & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2016. "Financial openness, domestic financial development and credit ratings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 11-18.
    2. Borensztein, Eduardo & Cowan, Kevin & Valenzuela, Patricio, 2013. "Sovereign ceilings “lite”? The impact of sovereign ratings on corporate ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4014-4024.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    5. Jack Bao & Jun Pan & Jiang Wang, 2011. "The Illiquidity of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(3), pages 911-946, June.
    6. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Usman, Ojonugwa & Gungor, Hasan & Roubaud, David & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Role of global, regional, and advanced market economic policy uncertainty on bond spreads in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Xinjie Wang & Weike Xu & Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, CDS spreads, and CDS liquidity provision," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 461-480, April.
    9. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    10. Patricio Valenzuela, 2016. "Rollover Risk and Credit Spreads: Evidence from International Corporate Bonds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 631-661.
    11. Pan, Wei-Fong & Wang, Xinjie & Xiao, Yaqing & Xu, Weike & Zhang, Jinfan, 2024. "The effect of economic and political uncertainty on sovereign CDS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 143-155.
    12. Eugenia Andreasen & Martin Schindler & Patricio Valenzuela, 2019. "Capital Controls and the Cost of Debt," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 288-314, June.
    13. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    14. Liu, Jinyu & Zhong, Rui, 2017. "Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 53-66.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Tingting & Qiu, Liping & Lv, Wenya & Yang, Xuanbin & Yang, Gang, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and municipal corporate bonds credit spreads: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond spreads; Credit ratings; Default risk; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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