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Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets

Author

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  • Novotný, Jan
  • Petrov, Dmitri
  • Urga, Giovanni

Abstract

We investigate trading opportunities of price jump clusters in the FX markets. We identify clusters for eight FX rates against the U.S. dollar from March 1, 2013 to June 6, 2013 sampled at a 5-minute frequency. We propose a high-frequency jump cluster-based trading strategy and show that jumps carry a tradable signal for all currencies; however, when incorporating the bid-ask spread, the only profitable currencies are the euro, yen and rand. From the portfolio perspective, a combination of the euro and yen represents a strategy robust to the holding period, minimizes the transaction costs, and diversifies out the U.S.-related risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Novotný, Jan & Petrov, Dmitri & Urga, Giovanni, 2015. "Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 66-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:24:y:2015:i:c:p:66-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2015.03.002
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    Cited by:

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    2. Serdengeçti, Süleyman & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2021. "Dynamics of return and liquidity (co) jumps in emerging foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Han, Seung-Oh & Huh, Sahn-Wook & Park, Jeayoung, 2023. "Detecting jumps amidst prevalent zero returns: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury securities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 276-307.
    4. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Petitjean, Mikael & Vargas, Nicolas, 2021. "Market instability and technical trading at high frequency: Evidence from NASDAQ stocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Milan Ficura & Jiri Witzany, 2016. "Estimating Stochastic Volatility and Jumps Using High-Frequency Data and Bayesian Methods," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 278-301, August.
    6. Gkillas Konstantinos & Gupta Rangan & Vortelinos Dimitrios I., 2023. "Uncertainty and realized jumps in the pound-dollar exchange rate: evidence from over one century of data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 27(1), pages 25-47, February.
    7. Lee, Suzanne S. & Wang, Minho, 2020. "Tales of tails: Jumps in currency markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    8. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:703:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chandrinos, Spyros K. & Lagaros, Nikos D., 2018. "Construction of currency portfolios by means of an optimized investment strategy," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 32-44.
    10. Milan Fičura, 2019. "Profitability of Trading in the Direction of Asset Price Jumps - Analysis of Multiple Assets and Frequencies," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 385-401.
    11. Kam Fong Chan & Phil Gray & Zheyao Pan, 2021. "The profitability of trading on large Lévy jumps," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 627-635, June.
    12. Dungey, Mardi & Matei, Marius & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2020. "Examining stress in Asian currencies: A perspective offered by high frequency financial market data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    13. Naeyoung Kang & Jungmu Kim, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis of Bitcoin Price Jump Risk," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-11, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price jumps; Clusters; Foreign exchange markets; Trading; Profitable strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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