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Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?

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  • Ivanova, Yuliya
  • Neely, Christopher J.
  • Weller, Paul
  • Famiglietti, Matthew T.

Abstract

Academic studies show that technical trading rules would have earned substantial excess returns over long periods in foreign exchange markets. However, the approach to risk adjustment has typically been rather cursory. We examine the ability of a wide range of models: CAPM, quadratic CAPM, downside risk CAPM, Carhart’s 4-factor model, the C-CAPM, an extended C-CAPM with durable consumption, Lustig-Verdelhan (LV) carry-trade factor model, and models including macroeconomic factors, and foreign exchange volatility, skewness and liquidity, to explain these technical trading returns. No model plausibly accounts for much of the technical profitability. This failure implicitly supports non-risk based explanations such as adaptive markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivanova, Yuliya & Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul & Famiglietti, Matthew T., 2021. "Can risk explain the profitability of technical trading in currency markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:110:y:2021:i:c:s0261560620302412
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102285
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hutchinson, Mark C. & Kyziropoulos, Panagiotis E. & O’Brien, John & O’Reilly, Philip & Sharma, Tripti, 2022. "Technical trading rule profitability in currencies: It’s all about momentum," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Petitjean, Mikael & Vargas, Nicolas, 2021. "Market instability and technical trading at high frequency: Evidence from NASDAQ stocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Palwishah, Rana & Kashif, Muhammad & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2024. "Asymmetric liquidity risk and currency returns before and during COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2022. "Do central banks rebalance their currency shares?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Technical analysis; Efficient markets hypothesis; Risk; Stochastic discount factor; Adaptive markets hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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