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Currency Momentum Strategies

Author

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  • Menkhoff, Lukas
  • Sarno, Lucio
  • Schrimpf, Paul
  • Schmeling, Maik

Abstract

We provide a broad empirical investigation of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We find a significant cross-sectional spread in excess returns of up to 10% p.a. between past winner and loser currencies. This spread in excess returns is not explained by traditional risk factors, it is partially explained by transaction costs and shows behavior consistent with investor under- and over-reaction. Moreover, cross-sectional currency momentum has very different properties from the widely studied carry trade and is not highly correlated with returns of benchmark technical trading rules. However, there seem to be very effective limits to arbitrage which prevent momentum returns from being easily exploitable in currency markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schrimpf, Paul & Schmeling, Maik, 2012. "Currency Momentum Strategies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8747, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8747
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum returns; Carry trades; Idiosyncratic volatility; Limits to arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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