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Currency momentum, carry trade, and market illiquidity

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  • Orlov, Vitaly

Abstract

This study empirically examines the effect of equity market illiquidity on the excess returns of currency momentum and carry trade strategies. Results show that equity market illiquidity explains the evolution of currency momentum strategy payoffs, but not carry trade. Returns on currency momentum are low following months of high equity market illiquidity. However, in the recent decade, illiquidity positively predicts the associated payoffs. The findings withstand various robustness checks and are economically significant, approximating in value to one-third of average monthly profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlov, Vitaly, 2016. "Currency momentum, carry trade, and market illiquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:67:y:2016:i:c:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2016.02.010
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    6. Jiang, Xue & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Currency strategies based on momentum, carry trade and skewness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 121-131.
    7. Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-56.
    8. Chen, Zilin & Gang, Jianhua & Qian, Zongxin, 2021. "Stock returns and carry trades," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
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    10. Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    11. Su, Zhi & Mo, Xuan & Yin, Libo, 2021. "Oil market uncertainty and excess returns on currency carry trade," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    12. Suh, Sangwon, 2019. "Unexploited currency carry trade profit opportunity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 236-254.
    13. Mehdi Zolfaghari & Bahram Sahabi, 2021. "The impact of oil price and exchange rate on momentum strategy profits in stock market: evidence from oil-rich developing countries," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 1981-2023, October.
    14. Stephen A. Gorman & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2021. "The ABC’s of the alternative risk premium: academic roots," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(6), pages 405-436, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency momentum; Carry trades; Market illiquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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