IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v57y2023ics1544612323006098.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysts’ forecast optimism and cash holding: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Xingyu
  • Kok Loang, Ooi

Abstract

Analysts play an important role as information intermediaries. In this paper, we empirically analyze the impact of analysts' forecast optimism on firms’ cash holdings. Based on China's A-share listed companies from 2011–2021 as the research sample, we find that analyst forecast optimism significantly decreases the company's cash holdings. Meanwhile, based on a cash-cash flow sensitivity model, we show that analyst forecast optimism reduces the company's financing constraint and further makes the company's cash holdings decrease. Moreover, the larger (or older) the firm, the smaller the negative effect of analyst optimism on cash holdings.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xingyu & Kok Loang, Ooi, 2023. "Analysts’ forecast optimism and cash holding: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:57:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323006098
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104237
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323006098
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104237?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cai, Huan & Qi, Zhen, 2021. "Private conversation matters: Evidence from sell-side analyst reports after private meetings," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Huang, Lixin & Li, Wei & Wang, Hong & Wu, Liansheng, 2022. "Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 643-659.
    3. Bing Han & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Do Analysts Gain an Informational Advantage by Visiting Listed Companies?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 1843-1867, December.
    4. Wang, Kai-Hua & Xiong, De-Ping & Mirza, Nawazish & Shao, Xue-Feng & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk uncertainty strengthen or depress cash holdings of oil enterprises? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Babar, Md. & Habib, Ahsan, 2021. "Product market competition in accounting, finance, and corporate governance: A review of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Su, Kun & Zhang, Miaomiao & Liu, Chengyun, 2022. "Financial derivatives, analyst forecasts, and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from an emerging market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Chen, Hanwen & Yang, Daoguang & Zhang, Joseph H. & Zhou, Haiyan, 2020. "Internal controls, risk management, and cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    9. Tan, Jianhua & Tan, Zhidong & Chan, Kam C., 2021. "Does air pollution affect a firm's cash holdings?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Liu, Guangqiang & Liu, Tianbao, 2022. "Does individual investors’ dividend tax influence analyst forecast? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Kong, Dongmin & Liu, Lihua & Liu, Shasha, 2020. "Market information traveling on high-speed rails: The case of analyst forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Hou, Tony Chieh-Tse & Gao, Simon, 2021. "The impact of economic freedom on financial analysts' earnings forecast: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific region," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    13. Zhang, Chao & Shrider, David G. & Han, Dun & Wu, Yanran, 2022. "Accurate forecasts attract clients; Biased forecasts keep them happy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Jiang, Xiong-Fei & Xiong, Long & Cen, Tao & Bai, Ling & Zhao, Na & Zhang, Jiu & Zheng, Chang-Juan & Jiang, Tian-Ying, 2022. "Analyst sentiment and earning forecast bias in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    15. Lihua Liu & Dongmin Kong & Wei Yang, 2022. "Brain gain of analysts in China: foreign experiences and forecast accuracy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2089-2129, June.
    16. Zhao, Chen & Li, Yubin & Govindaraj, Suresh & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2022. "CDS trading and analyst optimism," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).
    17. Brown, Anna Bergman & Lin, Guoyu & Zhou, Aner, 2022. "Analysts’ forecast optimism: The effects of managers’ incentives on analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    18. Boubakri, Narjess & Bouslimi, Lobna & Zhong, Rui, 2022. "Political uncertainty and analysts’ forecasts: International evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    19. Kong, Dongmin & Lin, Zhiyang & Wang, Yanan & Xiang, Junyi, 2021. "Natural disasters and analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Bhuiyan, Md Borhan Uddin & Hooks, Jill, 2019. "Cash holding and over-investment behavior in firms with problem directors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 35-51.
    21. repec:eme:mfppss:mf-11-2018-0540 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
    2. Yi, Yunxin, 2023. "Does the liberalization of stock market optimize firm's debt? Evidence from a policy experiment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    3. Chen, Guang & Wang, Min, 2023. "Stock market liberalization and earnings management: Evidence from the China–Hong Kong Stock Connects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    4. Zhang, Jian & Qiao, Jun & Wu, Wenruo & Sheng, Yan & Su, Jingqi, 2023. "Public attention and analyst visits: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Liu, Wenjun & Chen, Aoyun, 2024. "Institutional ownership and analysts’ earnings forecasts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Yunqi Fan & Yanwei Zhang, 2024. "Consequences of firm-specific stock price crashes on analyst forecasts: Evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Liu, Guangqiang & Liu, Tianbao, 2022. "Does individual investors’ dividend tax influence analyst forecast? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Ji, Xu & Dong, Yan & Vagnani, Gianluca & Yang, Xiaoqi, 2024. "Stock market reactions and optimism bias in analysts’ earnings forecasts: An analysis of China's stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Tam, Lewis H.K. & Tian, Shaohua, 2023. "Language barriers, corporate site visit, and analyst forecast accuracy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 68-83.
    10. Issal Haj-Salem & Khaled Hussainey, 2021. "Risk Disclosure and Corporate Cash Holdings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-15, July.
    11. Dai, Yunhao & Chao, Yang & Wang, Li, 2021. "The brain gain of CFOs in China: The case of analyst forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Wang, Jiangyuan & Gan, Jiawu & Li, Zhen, 2021. "Industrial policy, uncertainty, and analysts’ earnings forecast: Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 249-258.
    13. Lai, Shaojie & Li, Xiaorong & Liu, Shiang & Wang, Qing Sophie, 2022. "Institutional investors’ site visits and corporate employment decision-making," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3).
    14. Liu, Qigui & Chi, Wenqiang & Wang, Junyi, 2024. "How informative is question-and-answer similarity to financial analysts? Evidence from Chinese earnings communication conferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    15. Qi, Zhen & Chu, Chien-Chi & Zhou, Yixiao & Chen, Jian, 2022. "Corporate site visits and firm performance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 598-608.
    16. Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Han, 2022. "The role of cash holdings during financial crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Shang, Duo & Yuan, Dongliang & Li, Dehui & Lin, Qi, 2023. "Independent directors’ geographic distance, high-speed railway, and corporate cash holdings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Liu, Huan & Hou, Canran, 2023. "The impact of institutional investors' corporate site visits on corporate social responsibility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    19. Xiong, Jiacai & Ouyang, Caiyue & Tong, Jamie Yixing & Zhang, Feida Frank, 2021. "Fraud commitment in a smaller world: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    20. Yan, Sen & Sun, Xinyu & Zhang, Yurong, 2024. "High-speed railway ripples on the greenness: Insight from urban green vegetation cover," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:57:y:2023:i:c:s1544612323006098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.