IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v50y2022ics1544612322004494.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does individual investors’ dividend tax influence analyst forecast? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Guangqiang
  • Liu, Tianbao

Abstract

Taking the implementation of dividend tax reform (DTR) for individual investors as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper analyzes the effect of individual investors’ dividend tax on analyst forecast using difference-in-differences model. The results show a significant decrease in the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts after the implementation of DTR, mainly exacerbating the optimistic bias of analysts. Further analysis indicates that this effect is more pronounced for firms with poorer information quality and firms with less private information. Our study provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for regulators concerned with information asymmetry of capital market and investor protection.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Guangqiang & Liu, Tianbao, 2022. "Does individual investors’ dividend tax influence analyst forecast? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004494
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103263
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322004494
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103263?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Lixin & Li, Wei & Wang, Hong & Wu, Liansheng, 2022. "Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 643-659.
    2. Bing Han & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Do Analysts Gain an Informational Advantage by Visiting Listed Companies?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 1843-1867, December.
    3. Jeffrey R. Brown & Nellie Liang & Scott Weisbenner, 2007. "Executive Financial Incentives and Payout Policy: Firm Responses to the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1935-1965, August.
    4. Leonie Bell & Tim Jenkinson, 2002. "New Evidence of the Impact of Dividend Taxation and on the Identity of the Marginal Investor," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1321-1346, June.
    5. Qiang Cheng & Fei Du & Xin Wang & Yutao Wang, 2016. "Seeing is believing: analysts’ corporate site visits," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1245-1286, December.
    6. Xiaodong Xu & Huifeng Xu, 2018. "Investment-internal capital sensitivity, investment-cash flow sensitivity and dividend payment," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 183-207, May.
    7. Ham, Charles G. & Kaplan, Zachary R. & Leary, Mark T., 2020. "Do dividends convey information about future earnings?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 547-570.
    8. Zili Su & Constantinos Alexiou, 2019. "Equity incentive schemes, investor protection and corporate performance," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 297-322, November.
    9. Yugang Yin & Bin Tan, 2017. "Analyst’s ability, media selection and investor interests: evidence from China," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(1), pages 67-84, February.
    10. Ali, Heba & Hegazy, Aya Yasser, 2022. "Dividend policy, risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-192.
    11. Roychowdhury, Sugata, 2006. "Earnings management through real activities manipulation," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 335-370, December.
    12. Jarrad Harford & Feng Jiang & Rong Wang & Fei Xie, 2019. "Analyst Career Concerns, Effort Allocation, and Firms’ Information Environment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2179-2224.
    13. Hanlon, Michelle & Hoopes, Jeffrey L., 2014. "What do firms do when dividend tax rates change? An examination of alternative payout responses," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 105-124.
    14. deHaan, Ed & Shevlin, Terry & Thornock, Jacob, 2015. "Market (in)attention and the strategic scheduling and timing of earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 36-55.
    15. Li, Oliver Zhen & Liu, Hang & Ni, Chenkai & Ye, Kangtao, 2017. "Individual Investors’ Dividend Taxes and Corporate Payout Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 963-990, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xingyu & Kok Loang, Ooi, 2023. "Analysts’ forecast optimism and cash holding: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian & Liu, Shasha, 2022. "Does the mandatory disclosure of audit information affect analysts' information acquisition?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Nianzhi Guo & Ping‐Wen Sun & Huiqin Xiao, 2023. "Influence of dividend tax policy tied to investment horizon on stock price stability: Evidence from the 2015 dividend tax reform in China," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 524-552, September.
    3. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian & Zhang, Fan, 2022. "Individual investors’ dividend tax reform and corporate social responsibility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei, 2021. "Working online or offline: Which is more effective?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Dai, Yunhao & Chao, Yang & Wang, Li, 2021. "The brain gain of CFOs in China: The case of analyst forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Xu Cheng & Dongmin Kong & Xinwei Zheng & Qi Tang, 2022. "Do foreign investors crowd out sell‐side analysts? Evidence from China," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 815-834, November.
    7. Balachandran, Balasingham & Nguyen, Justin Hung, 2018. "Does carbon risk matter in firm dividend policy? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in an imputation environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 249-267.
    8. Brian Gibbons & Peter Iliev & Jonathan Kalodimos, 2021. "Analyst Information Acquisition via EDGAR," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 769-793, February.
    9. Gao, Zhan & Quan, Xiaofeng & Xu, Xingmei, 2022. "Under watchful eyes: Analyst site visits and firm earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Cao, June & Li, Wenwen & Bilokha, Alona, 2022. "Low-carbon city initiatives and analyst behaviour: A quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian, 2024. "Individual investors’ dividend tax reform and investment efficiency," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1102-1119.
    12. Yu, Xin & Wang, Yuetang & Chen, Yingrun & Wang, Guojun, 2021. "Dividend payouts and catering to demands: Evidence from a dividend tax reform," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Yun Meng & Christos Pantzalis, 2021. "Lottery-type stocks and corporate strategies at the turn of the month," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1027-1055, April.
    14. Yang, Xia & Ma, Zhong, 2022. "Institutional investors’ corporate site visits and dividend payouts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 697-716.
    15. He Xiao, 2023. "Institutional investors' corporate site visits and corporate investment efficiency," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 359-392, June.
    16. Minhang Deng & Yunyi Wang & Gaoliang Tian & Bozhi Xu & Yuyan Tang, 2023. "Institutional investors' corporate site visits and resource extraction: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(5), pages 5211-5243, December.
    17. Yanan Li & Wenjun Wang, 2022. "Company visits and mutual fund performance: new evidence on managerial skills," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 504-521, October.
    18. Alexandre Garel & Jose Martin-Flores & Arthur Petit-Romec & Ayesha Scott, 2021. "Institutional investor distraction and earnings management," Post-Print hal-03096196, HAL.
    19. Lu, Jing & Chen, Rongze, 2023. "Do individual investors pay attention to the information acquisition activities of institutional investors?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    20. Yang, Xinyao & Liu, Zhaoyi & Li, Tao, 2023. "Individual investors’ dividend tax reform and stock price crash risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dividend tax reform; Analyst forecast; Individual investor; Analyst visit; Information quality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy
    • K34 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Tax Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:50:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322004494. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.