IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v61y2020ics0927538x19307401.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market information traveling on high-speed rails: The case of analyst forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Kong, Dongmin
  • Liu, Lihua
  • Liu, Shasha

Abstract

This study examines the causal effects of high-speed rail (HSR) on the forecast accuracy of sell-side analysts. Although transportation infrastructure may reshape business activities, comparatively little attention has been paid to the impact of traveling cost on the information acquisition of analysts. In this study, we exploit a quasi-experiment of variation in China's HSR and use difference-in-differences estimation to show the following. (1) HSR substantially increase forecast accuracy for firms located in the cities connected to HSR. (2) To address endogeneity, we introduce a placebo test and instrumental variable based on the hypothetical least-cost HSR networks, and the results are highly consistent. (3) A plausible mechanism is that HSR increase the probability of analysts' visit of listed firms rather than via increased analyst coverage and an improved firm information environment. (4) Our findings are more pronounced for firms with high accrual quality, firms audited by a Big 4 auditor, and firms located nearer information centers. Overall, we provide the first empirical evaluation of the economic consequences of HSR in terms of analyst forecast and market information transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Kong, Dongmin & Liu, Lihua & Liu, Shasha, 2020. "Market information traveling on high-speed rails: The case of analyst forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s0927538x19307401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101320
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X19307401
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101320?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bing Han & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Do Analysts Gain an Informational Advantage by Visiting Listed Companies?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 1843-1867, December.
    2. Mayer, Thierry & Trevien, Corentin, 2017. "The impact of urban public transportation evidence from the Paris region," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-21.
    3. Filipe Campante & David Yanagizawa-Drott, 2018. "Long-Range Growth: Economic Development in the Global Network of Air Links," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1395-1458.
    4. Benjamin Faber, 2014. "Trade Integration, Market Size, and Industrialization: Evidence from China's National Trunk Highway System," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(3), pages 1046-1070.
    5. Sebastien Pouget & Julien Sauvagnat & Stephane Villeneuve, 2017. "A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Change: Confirmatory Bias in Financial Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 2066-2109.
    6. Roberts, Michael R. & Whited, Toni M., 2013. "Endogeneity in Empirical Corporate Finance1," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 493-572, Elsevier.
    7. Eugene Soltes, 2014. "Private Interaction Between Firm Management and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 245-272, March.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6d427am2i18m5a5elpijpm1e8l is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jones, Jj, 1991. "Earnings Management During Import Relief Investigations," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 193-228.
    10. Yael V. Hochberg & Alexander Ljungqvist & Yang Lu, 2007. "Whom You Know Matters: Venture Capital Networks and Investment Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 251-301, February.
    11. Yu Qin, 2017. "‘No county left behind?’ The distributional impact of high-speed rail upgrades in China," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 489-520.
    12. Elizabeth Demers, 2002. "Discussion of High‐Technology Intangibles and Analysts’ Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 313-319, May.
    13. Cormier, Denis & Houle, Sylvain & Ledoux, Marie-Josée, 2013. "The incidence of earnings management on information asymmetry in an uncertain environment: Some Canadian evidence," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 26-38.
    14. Sanjiv Sabherwal & Stephen D. Smith, 2008. "Concentrated Shareholders as Substitutes for Outside Analysts," Corporate Governance: An International Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(6), pages 562-577, November.
    15. Jere R. Francis & Dechun Wang, 2008. "The Joint Effect of Investor Protection and Big 4 Audits on Earnings Quality around the World," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 157-191, March.
    16. Francis, Jennifer & LaFond, Ryan & Olsson, Per & Schipper, Katherine, 2005. "The market pricing of accruals quality," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 295-327, June.
    17. Wang, Yanan & Liang, Shangkun & Kong, Dongmin & Wang, Qin, 2019. "High-speed rail, small city, and cost of debt: Firm-level evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    18. Xavier Giroud, 2013. "Proximity and Investment: Evidence from Plant-Level Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 861-915.
    19. Gul, Ferdinand A. & Kim, Jeong-Bon & Qiu, Annie A., 2010. "Ownership concentration, foreign shareholding, audit quality, and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(3), pages 425-442, March.
    20. Ke, Xiao & Chen, Haiqiang & Hong, Yongmiao & Hsiao, Cheng, 2017. "Do China's high-speed-rail projects promote local economy?—New evidence from a panel data approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 203-226.
    21. Joshua D. Coval & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 1999. "Home Bias at Home: Local Equity Preference in Domestic Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2045-2073, December.
    22. Platikanova, Petya & Mattei, Marco Maria, 2016. "Firm geographic dispersion and financial analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 71-89.
    23. Boubakri, Narjess & Guedhami, Omrane & Saffar, Walid, 2016. "Geographic location, foreign ownership, and cost of equity capital: Evidence from privatization," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 363-381.
    24. O'Brien, Patricia C. & Tan, Hongping, 2015. "Geographic proximity and analyst coverage decisions: Evidence from IPOs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 41-59.
    25. Kenneth Merkley & Roni Michaely & Joseph Pacelli, 2017. "Does the Scope of the Sell-Side Analyst Industry Matter? An Examination of Bias, Accuracy, and Information Content of Analyst Reports," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 1285-1334, June.
    26. Christopher J. Malloy, 2005. "The Geography of Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 719-755, April.
    27. Loughran, Tim, 2007. "Geographic dissemination of information," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 675-694, December.
    28. Chen, Chia-Lin & Hall, Peter, 2011. "The impacts of high-speed trains on British economic geography: a study of the UK’s InterCity 125/225 and its effects," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 689-704.
    29. Holl, Adelheid, 2016. "Highways and productivity in manufacturing firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 131-151.
    30. Lin, Yatang, 2017. "Travel costs and urban specialization patterns: Evidence from China’s high speed railway system," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 98-123.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tianjiao Zhao & Xiang Xiao & Qinghui Dai, 2021. "Transportation Infrastructure Construction and High-Quality Development of Enterprises: Evidence from the Quasi-Natural Experiment of High-Speed Railway Opening in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Wang, Yanan & Liang, Shangkun & Kong, Dongmin & Wang, Qin, 2019. "High-speed rail, small city, and cost of debt: Firm-level evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Kong, Dongmin & Liu, Lihua & Yang, Zhiqing, 2021. "High-speed rails and rural-urban migrants’ wages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1030-1042.
    4. Xiong, Jiacai & Ouyang, Caiyue & Tong, Jamie Yixing & Zhang, Feida Frank, 2021. "Fraud commitment in a smaller world: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    5. Carosi, Andrea, 2016. "Do local causations matter? The effect of firm location on the relations of ROE, R&D, and firm SIZE with MARKET-TO-BOOK," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 388-409.
    6. Zhang, Xueliang & Hu, Yuqi & Lin, Yongran, 2020. "The influence of highway on local economy: Evidence from China's Yangtze River Delta region," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Ouyang, Caiyue & Xiong, Jiacai & Liu, Li & Yao, Jun, 2024. "Geographic proximity and trade credit: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Kuang, Chun & Liu, Zijie & Zhu, Wenyu, 2021. "Need for speed: High-speed rail and firm performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Hao Gao & Yuanyu Qu & Tao Shen, 2022. "Geographic proximity and price efficiency: Evidence from high‐speed railway connections between firms and financial centers," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 117-141, March.
    10. Lei Zheng & Xuemeng Guo & Libin Zhao, 2021. "How Does Transportation Infrastructure Improve Corporate Social Responsibility? Evidence from High-Speed Railway Openings in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-23, June.
    11. Chen, Hanwen & Liu, Siyi & Wang, Junjie & Wu, Zhijuan, 2022. "The effect of geographic proximity on corporate tax avoidance: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Liu, Mengsha & Jiang, Yan & Wei, Xiaokun & Ruan, Qingsong & Lv, Dayong, 2023. "Effect of high-speed rail on entrepreneurial activities: Evidence from China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    13. Gao, Yanyan & Zheng, Jianghuai, 2020. "The impact of high-speed rail on innovation: An empirical test of the companion innovation hypothesis of transportation improvement with China’s manufacturing firms," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    14. Liaoliao Duan & Dongxiao Niu & Weizeng Sun & Siqi Zheng, 2021. "Transportation infrastructure and capital mobility: evidence from China’s high-speed railways," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(3), pages 617-648, December.
    15. Wang, Jiating & Cai, Siyuan, 2020. "The construction of high-speed railway and urban innovation capacity: Based on the perspective of knowledge Spillover," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    16. Lihua Liu & Dongmin Kong & Wei Yang, 2022. "Brain gain of analysts in China: foreign experiences and forecast accuracy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2089-2129, June.
    17. Dongxiao Niu & Weizeng Sun & Siqi Zheng, 2020. "Travel costs, trade, and market segmentation: Evidence from China's high‐speed railway," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(6), pages 1799-1825, December.
    18. Yatang Lin & Yu Qin & Johan Sulaeman & Jubo Yan & Jialiang Zhang, 2023. "Expanding Footprints: The Impact of Passenger Transportation on Corporate Locations," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 1119-1154.
    19. Daniel Bradley & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu, 2020. "Ties That Bind: The Value of Professional Connections to Sell-Side Analysts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 4118-4151, September.
    20. Yang, Xiaolan & Wang, Rui & Guo, Dongmei & Sun, Weizeng, 2020. "The reconfiguration effect of China's high-speed railway on intercity connection ——A study based on media attention index," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 47-56.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    High-speed rail; Sell-side analyst; Information dissemination; Forecast accuracy; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s0927538x19307401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.