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CDS trading and analyst optimism

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Chen
  • Li, Yubin
  • Govindaraj, Suresh
  • Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether and how the initiation of Credit Default Swaps (CDS) trading affects analyst forecast optimism. First, we document that the initiation of CDS trading curbs analyst forecasts optimism. Second, we find that the dampening effect of CDS on analyst optimism is stronger for firms with negative news and for firms with poorer financial performance or higher leverage, supporting a “correction effect” of CDS on non-strategic optimism. Moreover, we find that CDS also has a “disciplining effect” on strategic optimism that arises from incentives to cultivate relation with management or to please institutional investors. Overall, our evidence shows that the CDS market not only provides important information for analysts, but also alters analysts’ reporting incentives and enhances their objectivity. Additional analysis shows that this effect has disappeared after the Dodd-Frank Act.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Chen & Li, Yubin & Govindaraj, Suresh & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2022. "CDS trading and analyst optimism," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bracre:v:54:y:2022:i:4:s0890838922000385
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bar.2022.101109
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    2. Taoufik Elkemali, 2023. "Uncertainty and Financial Analysts’ Optimism: A Comparison between High-Tech and Low-Tech European Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Analyst forecast; Optimism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M4 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting

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