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Solar radiation forecasting in the short- and medium-term under all sky conditions

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  • Alonso-Montesinos, J.
  • Batlles, F.J.

Abstract

Meteorological conditions are decisive in solar plant management and electricity generation. Any increases or decreases in solar radiation mean a plant has to adapt its operation method to the climatological phenomena. An unexpected atmospheric change can provoke a range of problems related to various solar plant components affecting the electricity generation system and, in consequence, causing alterations in the electricity grid. Therefore, predicting atmospheric features is key to managing solar plants and is therefore necessary for correct electrical grid management. Accordingly, a solar radiation forecast model is presented, where the three solar components (beam, diffuse and global) are predicted over the short- and medium-term (up to three hours) for all sky conditions, demonstrating its potential as a useful application in decision-making processes at solar power plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Alonso-Montesinos, J. & Batlles, F.J., 2015. "Solar radiation forecasting in the short- and medium-term under all sky conditions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 387-393.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:387-393
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.02.036
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    Cited by:

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    3. Alonso-Montesinos, J. & Polo, Jesús & Ballestrín, Jesús & Batlles, F.J. & Portillo, C., 2019. "Impact of DNI forecasting on CSP tower plant power production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 368-377.
    4. Han, Tian & Li, Ruimeng & Wang, Xiao & Wang, Ying & Chen, Kang & Peng, Huaiwu & Gao, Zhenxin & Wang, Nannan & Peng, Qinke, 2024. "Intra-hour solar irradiance forecasting using topology data analysis and physics-driven deep learning," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Neethu Elizabeth Michael & Manohar Mishra & Shazia Hasan & Ahmed Al-Durra, 2022. "Short-Term Solar Power Predicting Model Based on Multi-Step CNN Stacked LSTM Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Alonso-Montesinos, J. & Monterreal, R. & Fernández-Reche, J. & Ballestrín, J. & Carra, E. & Polo, J. & Barbero, J. & Batlles, F.J. & López, G. & Enrique, R. & Martínez-Durbán, M. & Marzo, A., 2019. "Intra-hour energy potential forecasting in a central solar power plant receiver combining Meteosat images and atmospheric extinction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    7. Ashley, Thomas & Carrizosa, Emilio & Fernández-Cara, Enrique, 2017. "Optimisation of aiming strategies in Solar Power Tower plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 285-291.
    8. Oliver O. Apeh & Ochuko K. Overen & Edson L. Meyer, 2021. "Monthly, Seasonal and Yearly Assessments of Global Solar Radiation, Clearness Index and Diffuse Fractions in Alice, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Kamyab, Farhad & Bahrami, Shahab, 2016. "Efficient operation of energy hubs in time-of-use and dynamic pricing electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 343-355.
    10. Xu, Xiaojun & Du, Huaqiang & Zhou, Guomo & Mao, Fangjie & Li, Pingheng & Fan, Weiliang & Zhu, Dien, 2016. "A method for daily global solar radiation estimation from two instantaneous values using MODIS atmospheric products," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 117-125.
    11. Alonso-Montesinos, J. & Batlles, F.J., 2015. "The use of a sky camera for solar radiation estimation based on digital image processing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 377-386.
    12. Kaur, Amanpreet & Nonnenmacher, Lukas & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2016. "Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1073-1084.
    13. Eşlik, Ardan Hüseyin & Akarslan, Emre & Hocaoğlu, Fatih Onur, 2022. "Short-term solar radiation forecasting with a novel image processing-based deep learning approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1490-1505.
    14. Chen, Haoqian & Sui, Yi & Shang, Wen-long & Sun, Rencheng & Chen, Zhiheng & Wang, Changying & Han, Chunjia & Zhang, Yuqian & Zhang, Haoran, 2022. "Towards renewable public transport: Mining the performance of electric buses using solar-radiation as an auxiliary power source," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    15. Trigo-González, Mauricio & Cortés-Carmona, Marcelo & Marzo, Aitor & Alonso-Montesinos, Joaquín & Martínez-Durbán, Mercedes & López, Gabriel & Portillo, Carlos & Batlles, Francisco Javier, 2023. "Photovoltaic power electricity generation nowcasting combining sky camera images and learning supervised algorithms in the Southern Spain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 251-262.
    16. Garniwa, Pranda M.P. & Lee, Hyunjin, 2023. "Intercomparison of the parameterized Linke turbidity factor in deriving global horizontal irradiance," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 285-298.

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