IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v237y2024ipcs0960148124017592.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term forecast of solar irradiance components using an alternative mathematical approach for the identification of cloud features

Author

Listed:
  • Peña-Cruz, Manuel I.
  • Díaz-Ponce, Arturo
  • Sánchez-Segura, César D.
  • Valentín-Coronado, Luis
  • Moctezuma, Daniela

Abstract

Solar energy technologies require precise solar forecasting to reduce power generation losses and protect equipment from irradiance fluctuations. This study introduces an alternative methodology for short-term forecasting of direct normal irradiance (DNI) and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) utilizing ground-based sky images captured by a single device. A low-cost all-sky imager (ASI) was developed, which implements an angular transformation and an optical flow technique to extract cloud features such as shape and velocity. A mathematical model calculates cloud transmittance based on pixel intensity, eliminating complex training steps. Results from a 30-day experimental campaign, incorporating diverse meteorological conditions, were compared against a secondary standard solarimetric station, a smart persistence model, and state-of-the-art approaches. The DNI forecast achieved an RMSE (relative error) of 46.79 W/m2 (11.99%) for 1-min intervals and 90.21 W/m2 (17.54%) for 10-min intervals, while GHI ranged from 31.73 W/m2 (4.68%) to 75.02 W/m2 (13.63%). Pearson correlation coefficients exceeded 0.9 overall, reaching 0.98 and 0.99 for the 1-min DNI and GHI forecasts, and 0.91 and 0.96 for the 10-min DNI and GHI forecasts, respectively, underscoring the system’s accuracy and robustness in complex meteorological scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Peña-Cruz, Manuel I. & Díaz-Ponce, Arturo & Sánchez-Segura, César D. & Valentín-Coronado, Luis & Moctezuma, Daniela, 2024. "Short-term forecast of solar irradiance components using an alternative mathematical approach for the identification of cloud features," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(PC).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:237:y:2024:i:pc:s0960148124017592
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2024.121691
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148124017592
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2024.121691?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:237:y:2024:i:pc:s0960148124017592. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.