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Models for the estimation of diffuse solar radiation for typical cities in Turkey

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  • Bakirci, Kadir

Abstract

In solar energy applications, diffuse solar radiation component is required. Solar radiation data particularly in terms of diffuse component are not readily affordable, because of high price of measurements as well as difficulties in their maintenance and calibration. In this study, new empirical models for predicting the monthly mean diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface for typical cities in Turkey are established. Therefore, fifteen empirical models from studies in the literature are used. Also, eighteen diffuse solar radiation models are developed using long term sunshine duration and global solar radiation data. The accuracy of the developed models is evaluated in terms of different statistical indicators. It is found that the best performance is achieved for the third-order polynomial model based on sunshine duration and clearness index.

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  • Bakirci, Kadir, 2015. "Models for the estimation of diffuse solar radiation for typical cities in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 827-838.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:827-838
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.01.093
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    1. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Estimation of diffuse solar radiation in humid-subtropical climatic region of India: Comparison of diffuse fraction and diffusion coefficient models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 149-164.
    2. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Ma, Xin & Bai, Hua, 2019. "Evaluation and development of empirical models for estimating daily and monthly mean daily diffuse horizontal solar radiation for different climatic regions of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 168-186.
    3. De Giorgi, M.G. & Malvoni, M. & Congedo, P.M., 2016. "Comparison of strategies for multi-step ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on hybrid group method of data handling networks and least square support vector machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 360-373.
    4. Kheradmanda, Saeid & Nematollahi, Omid & Ayoobia, Ahmad Reza, 2016. "Clearness index predicting using an integrated artificial neural network (ANN) approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1357-1365.
    5. Li, Fen & Lin, Yilun & Guo, Jianping & Wang, Yue & Mao, Ling & Cui, Yang & Bai, Yongqing, 2020. "Novel models to estimate hourly diffuse radiation fraction for global radiation based on weather type classification," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 1222-1232.
    6. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Wang, Xiukang & Lu, Xianghui & Xiang, Youzhen, 2018. "Evaluating the effect of air pollution on global and diffuse solar radiation prediction using support vector machine modeling based on sunshine duration and air temperature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 732-747.
    7. Martins, Guilherme Santos & Giesbrecht, Mateus, 2023. "Hybrid approaches based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and k- Nearest Neighbors for clearness index forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    8. Khorasanizadeh, Hossein & Mohammadi, Kasra, 2016. "Diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface: Reviewing and categorizing the empirical models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 338-362.
    9. Ayodele, T.R. & Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O., 2015. "Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1733-1742.
    10. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparison of empirical models to estimate monthly mean diffuse solar radiation from measured data: Case study for humid-subtropical climatic region of India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1326-1342.
    11. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparative analysis of diffuse solar radiation models based on sky-clearness index and sunshine period for humid-subtropical climatic region of India: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 329-355.
    12. Wang, Lunche & Lu, Yunbo & Zou, Ling & Feng, Lan & Wei, Jing & Qin, Wenmin & Niu, Zigeng, 2019. "Prediction of diffuse solar radiation based on multiple variables in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 151-216.
    13. Yang, Liu & Cao, Qimeng & Yu, Ying & Liu, Yan, 2020. "Comparison of daily diffuse radiation models in regions of China without solar radiation measurement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Despotovic, Milan & Nedic, Vladimir & Despotovic, Danijela & Cvetanovic, Slobodan, 2016. "Evaluation of empirical models for predicting monthly mean horizontal diffuse solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 246-260.
    15. Bakirci, Kadir, 2021. "Prediction of diffuse radiation in solar energy applications: Turkey case study and compare with satellite data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    16. Ryszard Myhan & Karolina Szturo & Monika Panfil & Zbigniew Szwejkowski, 2020. "The Influence of Weather Conditions on the Optimal Setting of Photovoltaic Thermal Hybrid Solar Collectors—A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-13, September.
    17. Martins, Guilherme Santos & Giesbrecht, Mateus, 2021. "Clearness index forecasting: A comparative study between a stochastic realization method and a machine learning algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 787-805.

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