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Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index

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  • Ayodele, T.R.
  • Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O.

Abstract

In this paper, probability distribution of clearness index is proposed for the prediction of global solar radiation. First, the clearness index is obtained from the past data of global solar radiation, then, the parameters of the appropriate distribution that best fit the clearness index are determined. The global solar radiation is thereafter predicted from the clearness index using inverse transformation of the cumulative distribution function. To validate the proposed method, eight years global solar radiation data (2000–2007) of Ibadan, Nigeria are used to determine the parameters of appropriate probability distribution for clearness index. The calculated parameters are then used to predict the future monthly average global solar radiation for the following year (2008). The predicted values are compared with the measured values using four statistical tests: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) and the coefficient of determination (R2). The proposed method is also compared to the existing regression models. The results show that logistic distribution provides the best fit for clearness index of Ibadan and the proposed method is effective in predicting the monthly average global solar radiation with overall RMSE of 0.383 MJ/m2/day, MAE of 0.295 MJ/m2/day, MAPE of 2% and R2 of 0.967.

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  • Ayodele, T.R. & Ogunjuyigbe, A.S.O., 2015. "Prediction of monthly average global solar radiation based on statistical distribution of clearness index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1733-1742.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:90:y:2015:i:p2:p:1733-1742
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.137
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    6. Lopes, Francis M. & Conceição, Ricardo & Silva, Hugo G. & Salgado, Rui & Collares-Pereira, Manuel, 2021. "Improved ECMWF forecasts of direct normal irradiance: A tool for better operational strategies in concentrating solar power plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 755-771.
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    8. Bayrakçı, Hilmi Cenk & Demircan, Cihan & Keçebaş, Ali, 2018. "The development of empirical models for estimating global solar radiation on horizontal surface: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2771-2782.
    9. Mohamed A. Ali & Ashraf Elsayed & Islam Elkabani & Mohammad Akrami & M. Elsayed Youssef & Gasser E. Hassan, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence-Based Improvement of Empirical Methods for Accurate Global Solar Radiation Forecast: Development and Comparative Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-42, August.
    10. Battisti, Felipe G. & Delsoto, Giovanni S. & da Silva, Alexandre K., 2018. "Transient analysis and optimization of a recuperative sCO2 Brayton cycle assisted by heat and mass storage systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 979-991.
    11. Wang, Lunche & Kisi, Ozgur & Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad & Salazar, Germán Ariel & Zhu, Zhongmin & Gong, Wei, 2016. "Solar radiation prediction using different techniques: model evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 384-397.
    12. Hassan, Gasser E. & Youssef, M. Elsayed & Mohamed, Zahraa E. & Ali, Mohamed A. & Hanafy, Ahmed A., 2016. "New Temperature-based Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 437-450.
    13. Zhang, Jianyuan & Zhao, Li & Deng, Shuai & Xu, Weicong & Zhang, Ying, 2017. "A critical review of the models used to estimate solar radiation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 314-329.
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    15. Seyed Abbas Mousavi Maleki & H. Hizam & Chandima Gomes, 2017. "Estimation of Hourly, Daily and Monthly Global Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces: Models Re-Visited," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-28, January.

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