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Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

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  • Pukšec, Tomislav
  • Krajačić, Goran
  • Lulić, Zoran
  • Mathiesen, Brian Vad
  • Duić, Neven

Abstract

The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half.

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  • Pukšec, Tomislav & Krajačić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Duić, Neven, 2013. "Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 169-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:169-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.04.071
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    6. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Transition towards renewable energy supply in Croatia," MPRA Paper 63957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Helena Stimac & Juraj Vistica, 2018. "Transport Policy From Perspectives Of Passengers, Cargo, Energy: Croatia Vs European Union Countries," Business Logistics in Modern Management, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 18, pages 55-72.
    8. Sun, Dexi & Xia, Jianjun, 2023. "Research on road transport planning aiming at near zero carbon emissions: Taking Ruicheng County as an example," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    9. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    10. Bačeković, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "Local smart energy systems and cross-system integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 812-825.
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    12. Pfeifer, Antun & Krajačić, Goran & Ljubas, Davor & Duić, Neven, 2019. "Increasing the integration of solar photovoltaics in energy mix on the road to low emissions energy system – Economic and environmental implications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1310-1317.
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    14. Knez, Matjaz & Zevnik, Gašper Kozelj & Obrecht, Matevz, 2019. "A review of available chargers for electric vehicles: United States of America, European Union, and Asia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 284-293.
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