IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v57y2013icp169-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector

Author

Listed:
  • Pukšec, Tomislav
  • Krajačić, Goran
  • Lulić, Zoran
  • Mathiesen, Brian Vad
  • Duić, Neven

Abstract

The transport sector in Croatia represents one of the largest consumers of energy today, with a share of almost one third of the country's final energy demand. Considering this fact, it is very challenging to assess future trends influencing that demand. In this paper, long-term energy demand predictions for the Croatian transport sector are presented. Special emphasis is given to different influencing mechanisms, both legal and financial. The energy demand predictions presented in this paper are based on an end-use simulation model developed and tested with Croatia as a case study. The model incorporates the detailed modal structure of the Croatian transport sector, including road, rail, air, public and water transport modes. Four long-term energy demand scenarios were analysed till the year 2050; frozen efficiency, implementation of EU legislation, electrification and modal split. Based on that analysis, significant savings can be achieved through energy efficiency improvements, electrification of personal vehicles fleet as well as gradual modal split. Comparing the frozen efficiency scenario and electrification scenario for the year 2050, it can be concluded that energy consumption, with the heavy electrification of personal vehicles fleet, can be cut by half.

Suggested Citation

  • Pukšec, Tomislav & Krajačić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Duić, Neven, 2013. "Forecasting long-term energy demand of Croatian transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 169-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:169-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.04.071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054421300443X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2013.04.071?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Segurado, Raquel & Krajacic, Goran & Duic, Neven & Alves, Luís, 2011. "Increasing the penetration of renewable energy resources in S. Vicente, Cape Verde," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 466-472, February.
    2. Reichl, Johannes & Kollmann, Andrea, 2011. "The baseline in bottom-up energy efficiency and saving calculations - A concept for its formalisation and a discussion of relevant options," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 422-431, February.
    3. Bauer, Mariano & Mar, Elizabeth & Elizalde, Alberto, 2003. "Transport and energy demand in Mexico: the personal income shock," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 1475-1480, November.
    4. Lund, Henrik & Kempton, Willett, 2008. "Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3578-3587, September.
    5. Sa'ad, Suleiman, 2010. "Improved technical efficiency and exogenous factors in transportation demand for energy: An application of structural time series analysis to South Korean data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 2745-2751.
    6. Lund, Henrik & Andersen, Anders N. & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Connolly, David, 2012. "From electricity smart grids to smart energy systems – A market operation based approach and understanding," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 96-102.
    7. Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Lund, Henrik & Karlsson, Kenneth, 2011. "100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 488-501, February.
    8. McFarland, J. R. & Reilly, J. M. & Herzog, H. J., 2004. "Representing energy technologies in top-down economic models using bottom-up information," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 685-707, July.
    9. Zhang, Shuwei & Jiang, Kejun & Liu, Deshun, 2007. "Passenger transport modal split based on budgets and implication for energy consumption: Approach and application in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4434-4443, September.
    10. Banister, David & Hickman, Robin, 2013. "Transport futures: Thinking the unthinkable," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 283-293.
    11. Ćosić, Boris & Krajačić, Goran & Duić, Neven, 2012. "A 100% renewable energy system in the year 2050: The case of Macedonia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 80-87.
    12. Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed & Samhouri, Murad & Al-Hinti, Ismael & Jaber, Jamal & Al-Rawashdeh, Mohammad, 2012. "Projection of future transport energy demand of Jordan using adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 128-135.
    13. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Nørgaard, P., 2008. "Integrated transport and renewable energy systems," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 107-116, June.
    14. Yan, Xiaoyu & Crookes, Roy J., 2009. "Reduction potentials of energy demand and GHG emissions in China's road transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 658-668, February.
    15. Kyle, Page & Kim, Son H., 2011. "Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 3012-3024, May.
    16. Parikh, Kirit S. & Karandikar, Vivek & Rana, Ashish & Dani, Prasanna, 2009. "Projecting India's energy requirements for policy formulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 928-941.
    17. Schneider, Daniel R. & Duić, Neven & Bogdan, Željko, 2007. "Mapping the potential for decentralized energy generation based on renewable energy sources in the Republic of Croatia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1731-1744.
    18. Yu, Shi-wei & Zhu, Ke-jun, 2012. "A hybrid procedure for energy demand forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 396-404.
    19. Johansson, Bengt, 2009. "Will restrictions on CO2 emissions require reductions in transport demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3212-3220, August.
    20. Eom, Jiyong & Schipper, Lee, 2010. "Trends in passenger transport energy use in South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3598-3607, July.
    21. Limanond, Thirayoot & Jomnonkwao, Sajjakaj & Srikaew, Artit, 2011. "Projection of future transport energy demand of Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2754-2763, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monica Maduekwe & Uduak Akpan & Salisu Isihak, 2020. "Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/055, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    2. Cerovac, Tin & Ćosić, Boris & Pukšec, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2014. "Wind energy integration into future energy systems based on conventional plants – The case study of Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 643-655.
    3. Cipek, Mihael & Pavković, Danijel & Kljaić, Zdenko & Mlinarić, Tomislav Josip, 2019. "Assessment of battery-hybrid diesel-electric locomotive fuel savings and emission reduction potentials based on a realistic mountainous rail route," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1154-1171.
    4. Ahmat Khazali Acyl & Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken & Aubin Kinfack Jeutsa & Jean Marie Stevy Sama & Marcel Rodrigue Ewodo-Amougou & Jean Gaston Tamba, 2024. "Forecasting Petroleum Products Consumption in the Chadian Road Transport Sector using Optimised Grey Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 603-611, January.
    5. Abd Alla, Sara & Bianco, Vincenzo & Tagliafico, Luca A. & Scarpa, Federico, 2021. "Pathways to electric mobility integration in the Italian automotive sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    6. Vidakovic, Neven, 2014. "Transition towards renewable energy supply in Croatia," MPRA Paper 63957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Helena Stimac & Juraj Vistica, 2018. "Transport Policy From Perspectives Of Passengers, Cargo, Energy: Croatia Vs European Union Countries," Business Logistics in Modern Management, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 18, pages 55-72.
    8. Sun, Dexi & Xia, Jianjun, 2023. "Research on road transport planning aiming at near zero carbon emissions: Taking Ruicheng County as an example," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PB).
    9. Shao, Zhen & Chao, Fu & Yang, Shan-Lin & Zhou, Kai-Le, 2017. "A review of the decomposition methodology for extracting and identifying the fluctuation characteristics in electricity demand forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 123-136.
    10. Bačeković, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "Local smart energy systems and cross-system integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 812-825.
    11. Rešetar, Marko & Pejić, Goran & Lulić, Zoran, 2018. "Changes and trends in the Croatian road vehicle fleet – Need for change of policy measures," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 92-105.
    12. Pfeifer, Antun & Krajačić, Goran & Ljubas, Davor & Duić, Neven, 2019. "Increasing the integration of solar photovoltaics in energy mix on the road to low emissions energy system – Economic and environmental implications," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1310-1317.
    13. Pukšec, Tomislav & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Novosel, Tomislav & Duić, Neven, 2014. "Assessing the impact of energy saving measures on the future energy demand and related GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction of Croatia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 198-209.
    14. Knez, Matjaz & Zevnik, Gašper Kozelj & Obrecht, Matevz, 2019. "A review of available chargers for electric vehicles: United States of America, European Union, and Asia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 284-293.
    15. Prebeg, Pero & Gasparovic, Goran & Krajacic, Goran & Duic, Neven, 2016. "Long-term energy planning of Croatian power system using multi-objective optimization with focus on renewable energy and integration of electric vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1493-1507.
    16. Colmenar-Santos, Antonio & Borge-Diez, David & Ortega-Cabezas, Pedro Miguel & Míguez-Camiña, J.V., 2014. "Macro economic impact, reduction of fee deficit and profitability of a sustainable transport model based on electric mobility. Case study: City of León (Spain)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 303-318.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    3. Md. Nasimul Islam Maruf, 2019. "Sector Coupling in the North Sea Region—A Review on the Energy System Modelling Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
    4. Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Sorknæs, Peter & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Chang, Miguel & Madsen, Poul Thøis & Kany, Mikkel Strunge & Skov, Iva Ridjan, 2022. "Smart energy Denmark. A consistent and detailed strategy for a fully decarbonized society," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Sadri, A. & Ardehali, M.M. & Amirnekooei, K., 2014. "General procedure for long-term energy-environmental planning for transportation sector of developing countries with limited data based on LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 831-843.
    6. Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2012. "The role of Carbon Capture and Storage in a future sustainable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 469-476.
    7. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2016. "Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1634-1653.
    8. Pillai, Jayakrishnan R. & Heussen, Kai & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2011. "Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3233-3243.
    9. Teixeira, Ana Carolina Rodrigues & Sodré, José Ricardo, 2016. "Simulation of the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions from replacement of a conventional Brazilian taxi fleet by electric vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1617-1622.
    10. Manuel Llorca & José Baños & José Somoza & Pelayo Arbués, 2017. "A Stochastic Frontier Analysis Approach for Estimating Energy Demand and Efficiency in the Transport Sector of Latin America and the Caribbean," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    11. Tonini, Davide & Astrup, Thomas, 2012. "LCA of biomass-based energy systems: A case study for Denmark," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 234-246.
    12. Djørup, Søren & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Sorknæs, Peter, 2018. "The electricity market in a renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 148-157.
    13. Llorca, Manuel & Baños, José & Somoza, José & Arbués, Pelayo, 2014. "A latent class approach for estimating energy demands and efficiency in transport: An application to Latin America and the Caribbean," Efficiency Series Papers 2014/04, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    14. Bačeković, Ivan & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2018. "Local smart energy systems and cross-system integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 812-825.
    15. Liu, Wen & Lund, Henrik & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2011. "Large-scale integration of wind power into the existing Chinese energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 4753-4760.
    16. Ridjan, Iva & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Connolly, David, 2014. "Synthetic fuel production costs by means of solid oxide electrolysis cells," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 104-113.
    17. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Lund, Henrik, 2011. "A renewable energy system in Frederikshavn using low-temperature geothermal energy for district heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 479-487, February.
    18. Simoglou, Christos K. & Bakirtzis, Emmanouil A. & Biskas, Pandelis N. & Bakirtzis, Anastasios G., 2016. "Optimal operation of insular electricity grids under high RES penetration," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1308-1316.
    19. Hansen, Kenneth & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Skov, Iva Ridjan, 2019. "Full energy system transition towards 100% renewable energy in Germany in 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-13.
    20. Kwon, Pil Seok & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2013. "Priority order in using biomass resources – Energy systems analyses of future scenarios for Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-94.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:169-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.