IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v29y2013icp283-293.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transport futures: Thinking the unthinkable

Author

Listed:
  • Banister, David
  • Hickman, Robin

Abstract

It is becoming increasingly important to think about longer term possibilities and directions that are trend breaking and can help anticipate the unexpected. The future is perhaps becoming less certain, or at least uncertainty is a central feature of future trajectories. This paper discusses the role that different types of scenarios can play in helping derive potential transport futures – including issues of possibility, plausibility and desirability – giving examples of each. It then contextualises the scenarios, emphasising the need for the longer view, the importance of decarbonising the economy, and in engaging decisions makers at all levels in a fully participatory process to confront the need for strong action on mitigation and adaptation. This is illustrated with an example from Delhi to demonstrate some of the recent developments and applications of these principles. Finally, some comments are made on the issues relating to improving our understanding of sustainability, and the difficulty of making radical changes to individual and societal values, and to travel behaviours, often requiring immediate and large scale actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Banister, David & Hickman, Robin, 2013. "Transport futures: Thinking the unthinkable," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 283-293.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:283-293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.07.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X12001205
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.07.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, John Bridger, 1982. "Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 337-344, December.
    2. Hickman, Robin & Ashiru, Olu & Banister, David, 2011. "Transitions to low carbon transport futures: strategic conversations from London and Delhi," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1553-1562.
    3. Hickman, Robin & Ashiru, Olu & Banister, David, 2010. "Transport and climate change: Simulating the options for carbon reduction in London," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 110-125, March.
    4. David Banister & Robin Hickman, 2009. "Techno-optimism: progress towards CO 2 reduction targets in transport: a UK and London perspective," International Journal of Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 24-47.
    5. Schwanen, Tim & Banister, David & Anable, Jillian, 2011. "Scientific research about climate change mitigation in transport: A critical review," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 993-1006.
    6. Hickman, Robin & Banister, David, 2007. "Looking over the horizon: Transport and reduced CO2 emissions in the UK by 2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 377-387, September.
    7. Banister, David, 2011. "The trilogy of distance, speed and time," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 950-959.
    8. Allan P. O. Williams, 2006. "Impact of Strategies," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Rise of Cass Business School, chapter 13, pages 167-181, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Banister, David, 2008. "The sustainable mobility paradigm," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 73-80, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Varvara Nikulina & David Simon & Henrik Ny & Henrikke Baumann, 2019. "Context-Adapted Urban Planning for Rapid Transitioning of Personal Mobility towards Sustainability: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-37, February.
    2. Hickman, Robin & Ashiru, Olu & Banister, David, 2011. "Transitions to low carbon transport futures: strategic conversations from London and Delhi," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1553-1562.
    3. Camilleri, Rosalie & Attard, Maria & Hickman, Robin, 2022. "Understanding barriers to modal shift in Malta: A practice-theoretical perspective of everyday mobility," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Hickman, Robin & Hall, Peter & Banister, David, 2013. "Planning more for sustainable mobility," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 210-219.
    5. Hickman, Robin & Saxena, Sharad & Banister, David & Ashiru, Olu, 2012. "Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 560-575.
    6. Kębłowski, Wojciech & Dobruszkes, Frédéric & Boussauw, Kobe, 2022. "Moving past sustainable transport studies: Towards a critical perspective on urban transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 74-83.
    7. Skeete, Jean-Paul, 2018. "Level 5 autonomy: The new face of disruption in road transport," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 22-34.
    8. Kishita, Yusuke & Höjer, Mattias & Quist, Jaco, 2024. "Consolidating backcasting: A design framework towards a users’ guide," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    10. Cass, Noel & Faulconbridge, James, 2016. "Commuting practices: New insights into modal shift from theories of social practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-14.
    11. Canitez, Fatih, 2019. "Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: A socio-technical transition perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 319-329.
    12. Soria-Lara, Julio A. & Banister, David, 2017. "Dynamic participation processes for policy packaging in transport backcasting studies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-30.
    13. Focas, Caralampo, 2016. "Travel behaviour and CO2 emissions in urban and exurban London and New York," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 82-91.
    14. Vale, David S., 2013. "Does commuting time tolerance impede sustainable urban mobility? Analysing the impacts on commuting behaviour as a result of workplace relocation to a mixed-use centre in Lisbon," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 38-48.
    15. Hirschhorn, Fabio & Paulsson, Alexander & Sørensen, Claus H. & Veeneman, Wijnand, 2019. "Public transport regimes and mobility as a service: Governance approaches in Amsterdam, Birmingham, and Helsinki," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 178-191.
    16. Gössling, Stefan & Cohen, Scott, 2014. "Why sustainable transport policies will fail: EU climate policy in the light of transport taboos," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 197-207.
    17. Francesco Filippi, 2022. "A Paradigm Shift for a Transition to Sustainable Urban Transport," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-27, March.
    18. Eliasson, Jonas & Proost, Stef, 2015. "Is sustainable transport policy sustainable?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 92-100.
    19. Hans Jakob Walnum & Carlo Aall & Søren Løkke, 2014. "Can Rebound Effects Explain Why Sustainable Mobility Has Not Been Achieved?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-28, December.
    20. Ülengin, Füsun & Işık, Mine & Ekici, Şule Önsel & Özaydın, Özay & Kabak, Özgür & Topçu, Y. İlker, 2018. "Policy developments for the reduction of climate change impacts by the transportation sector," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 36-50.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:29:y:2013:i:c:p:283-293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.