Do drivers of CO2 emission growth alter overtime and by the stage of economic development?

The rapid increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in recent decades is a major concern because CO2 emissions are the main precursor of global warming. Thus, a clear understanding of the factors behind this increase is crucial for the design of policies that limit or at least stabilize global concentrations of CO2. In this study, we investigate factors driving the growth in global CO2 emissions over the last two decades (between 1997 and 2015) using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. The analysis shows that economic growth is the main driver of CO2 emissions during the 1997–2015 period. Population growth is also responsible for increased CO2 emissions, mainly in low-income countries. Without lowering energy intensity and increasing the deployment of clean and renewable energy, CO2 emissions during 1997–2015 would have been almost 50% higher than the observed level. The analysis also shows that the factors driving CO2 emission growth vary among countries from different per-capita income brackets. The analysis emphasizes the need to reduce CO2 more rapidly in highly industrialized countries and to continue to support reduction of CO2 in developing countries, per the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) Common But Differentiated Resposibilities.