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Fuzzy semi-entropy based downside risk to low-carbon oriented multi-energy dispatch considering multiple dependent uncertainties

Author

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  • Jiao, P.H.
  • Chen, J.J.
  • Cai, X.
  • Zhao, Y.L.

Abstract

Increasing deployment of wind power into integrated energy system becomes a critical pathway for deep decarbonizing the power sector. It is imperative to investigate the impacts of uncertain wind power on integrated power system as the result of the heavy interdependencies among different types of energy in supplying the requirements of economy, low carbon and risk aversion. Here, the concept of fuzzy semi-entropy is presented to quantify the downside risk of uncertain wind power. After that, a mean-semi-entropy model for low-carbon oriented electrical-gas-heat energy system including carbon emission, carbon capture and carbon trading is proposed. In particular, the dependence of wind power outputs from different wind turbines is investigated by the multivariate Gaussian Copula. Results obtained from case studies demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model in achieving a balanced trade-off among system economy, low carbon emission and operation risk properly. The proposed model enables the reduction in total cost and carbon emission by 2.29% and 5.18% in comparison to these of traditional cost minimization model. In addition, the accommodation level of wind power with multivariate Gaussian Copula improves by 2.17% compared to that without considering coupling.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiao, P.H. & Chen, J.J. & Cai, X. & Zhao, Y.L., 2024. "Fuzzy semi-entropy based downside risk to low-carbon oriented multi-energy dispatch considering multiple dependent uncertainties," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:287:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223031110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129717
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    References listed on IDEAS

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