IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v282y2023ics0360544223021680.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cost-effective options and regional interdependencies of reaching a low-carbon European electricity system in 2035

Author

Listed:
  • Sasse, Jan-Philipp
  • Trutnevyte, Evelina

Abstract

With its European Green Deal, the European Union (EU) aims to substantially increase renewable electricity generation and decrease greenhouse gas emissions in the electricity sector by 2035. European countries independently set these targets, but might not account for cross-border infrastructure interdependencies that may facilitate or impede their implementation. This study quantifies regional interdependencies among 36 European countries aggregated to eight regions by applying electricity sector modeling, Modeling to Generate Alternatives, tree-based ensemble method, and scenario discovery. Cost-effectively reaching EU targets in 2035 allows for flexibility in uptake of electricity system infrastructure across European regions, with few exceptions. Reaching EU targets with low costs requires high renewable capacities in Central and Nordic Europe and France, steep reductions of fossil fuel capacities in Central and Eastern Europe, keeping existing nuclear capacities in France, and high storage capacities in Alpine and Central Europe. Regional targets are most influential for increasing renewable capacities, while EU targets are most influential for decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. If EU targets are met, reaching regional targets of Central Europe and keeping nuclear capacities in France substantially reduce infrastructure requirements in Eastern Europe, highlighting the importance of regional cooperation for electricity system planning and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Cost-effective options and regional interdependencies of reaching a low-carbon European electricity system in 2035," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:282:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223021680
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.128774
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223021680
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.128774?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cousse, Julia & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Hahnel, Ulf J.J., 2021. "Tell me how you feel about geothermal energy: Affect as a revealing factor of the role of seismic risk on public acceptance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Cousse, Julia, 2021. "Still in love with solar energy? Installation size, affect, and the social acceptance of renewable energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Investment appraisal of cost-optimal and near-optimal pathways for the UK electricity sector transition to 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 89-109.
    4. J.-F. Mercure & P. Salas & P. Vercoulen & G. Semieniuk & A. Lam & H. Pollitt & P. B. Holden & N. Vakilifard & U. Chewpreecha & N. R. Edwards & J. E. Vinuales, 2021. "Reframing incentives for climate policy action," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1133-1143, December.
    5. Zoellner, Jan & Schweizer-Ries, Petra & Wemheuer, Christin, 2008. "Public acceptance of renewable energies: Results from case studies in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4136-4141, November.
    6. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Osorio, Sebastian & Rodrigues, Renato, 2021. "Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    7. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    8. Meyerhoff, Jürgen & Ohl, Cornelia & Hartje, Volkmar, 2010. "Landscape externalities from onshore wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 82-92, January.
    9. DeCarolis, Joseph F., 2011. "Using modeling to generate alternatives (MGA) to expand our thinking on energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 145-152, March.
    10. Jan-Philipp Sasse & Evelina Trutnevyte, 2020. "Regional impacts of electricity system transition in Central Europe until 2035," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Jessica Jewell & Vadim Vinichenko & Lola Nacke & Aleh Cherp, 2019. "Prospects for powering past coal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(8), pages 592-597, August.
    12. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2016. "Does cost optimization approximate the real-world energy transition?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 182-193.
    13. Aleh Cherp & Vadim Vinichenko & Jale Tosun & Joel A. Gordon & Jessica Jewell, 2021. "National growth dynamics of wind and solar power compared to the growth required for global climate targets," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 742-754, July.
    14. Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2013. "EXPANSE methodology for evaluating the economic potential of renewable energy from an energy mix perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 593-601.
    15. Mark J. Hurlstone & Susie Wang & Annabel Price & Zoe Leviston & Iain Walker, 2017. "Cooperation studies of catastrophe avoidance: implications for climate negotiations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 119-133, January.
    16. Sanya Carley & David M. Konisky, 2020. "The justice and equity implications of the clean energy transition," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 569-577, August.
    17. McKenna, R. & Ostman v.d. Leye, P. & Fichtner, W., 2016. "Key challenges and prospects for large wind turbines," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1212-1221.
    18. Diluiso, Francesca & Walk, Paula & Manych, Niccolò & Cerutti, Nicola & Chipiga, Vladislav & Workman, Annabelle & Ayas, Ceren & Cui, Ryna Yiyun & Cui, Diyang & Song, Kaihui & Banisch, Lucy A. & Moretti, 2021. "Coal transitions—part 1: a systematic map and review of case study learnings from regional, national, and local coal phase-out experiences," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 16(11).
    19. Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2019. "Distributional trade-offs between regionally equitable and cost-efficient allocation of renewable electricity generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    20. Pietzcker, Robert & Osorio, Sebastian & Rodrigues, Renato, 2021. "Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector," EconStor Preprints 222579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2021.
    21. Zappa, William & Junginger, Martin & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Is a 100% renewable European power system feasible by 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1027-1050.
    22. Jan-Philipp Sasse & Evelina Trutnevyte, 2023. "A low-carbon electricity sector in Europe risks sustaining regional inequalities in benefits and vulnerabilities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    23. William Nordhaus, 2015. "Climate Clubs: Overcoming Free-Riding in International Climate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1339-1370, April.
    24. E. Downey Brill, Jr. & Shoou-Yuh Chang & Lewis D. Hopkins, 1982. "Modeling to Generate Alternatives: The HSJ Approach and an Illustration Using a Problem in Land Use Planning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(3), pages 221-235, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan-Philipp Sasse & Evelina Trutnevyte, 2023. "A low-carbon electricity sector in Europe risks sustaining regional inequalities in benefits and vulnerabilities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Wen, Xin & Heinisch, Verena & Müller, Jonas & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Comparison of statistical and optimization models for projecting future PV installations at a sub-national scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    3. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka, 2017. "Modelling to generate alternatives: A technique to explore uncertainty in energy-environment-economy models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 356-369.
    4. Berntsen, Philip B. & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2017. "Ensuring diversity of national energy scenarios: Bottom-up energy system model with Modeling to Generate Alternatives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 886-898.
    5. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    6. Silva, Felipe L.C. & Souza, Reinaldo C. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando L. & Lourenco, Plutarcho M. & Calili, Rodrigo F., 2018. "A bottom-up methodology for long term electricity consumption forecasting of an industrial sector - Application to pulp and paper sector in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 1107-1118.
    7. Chen, Yi-kuang & Kirkerud, Jon Gustav & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2022. "Balancing GHG mitigation and land-use conflicts: Alternative Northern European energy system scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    8. Finke, Jonas & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Implementing a highly adaptable method for the multi-objective optimisation of energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    9. Fodstad, Marte & Crespo del Granado, Pedro & Hellemo, Lars & Knudsen, Brage Rugstad & Pisciella, Paolo & Silvast, Antti & Bordin, Chiara & Schmidt, Sarah & Straus, Julian, 2022. "Next frontiers in energy system modelling: A review on challenges and the state of the art," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Schwaeppe, Henrik & Thams, Marten Simon & Walter, Julian & Moser, Albert, 2024. "Finding better alternatives: Shadow prices of near-optimal solutions in energy system optimization modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    11. Dubois, Antoine & Dumas, Jonathan & Thiran, Paolo & Limpens, Gauthier & Ernst, Damien, 2023. "Multi-objective near-optimal necessary conditions for multi-sectoral planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    12. Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2019. "Distributional trade-offs between regionally equitable and cost-efficient allocation of renewable electricity generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    13. Pedersen, Tim T. & Victoria, Marta & Rasmussen, Morten G. & Andresen, Gorm B., 2021. "Modeling all alternative solutions for highly renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    14. Luo, Shihua & Hu, Weihao & Liu, Wen & Zhang, Zhenyuan & Bai, Chunguang & Huang, Qi & Chen, Zhe, 2022. "Study on the decarbonization in China's power sector under the background of carbon neutrality by 2060," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    15. Finke, Jonas & Bertsch, Valentin, 2022. "Implementing a highly adaptable method for the multi-objective optimisation of energy systems," MPRA Paper 115504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Tafarte, Philip & Lehmann, Paul, 2023. "Quantifying trade-offs for the spatial allocation of onshore wind generation capacity – A case study for Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    17. Mier, Mathias & Siala, Kais & Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip, 2023. "Collaboration, decarbonization, and distributional effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    18. Onodera, Hiroaki & Delage, Rémi & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2024. "The role of regional renewable energy integration in electricity decarbonization—A case study of Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    19. Price, James & Keppo, Ilkka & Dodds, Paul E., 2023. "The role of new nuclear power in the UK's net-zero emissions energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    20. Walch, Alina & Rüdisüli, Martin, 2023. "Strategic PV expansion and its impact on regional electricity self-sufficiency: Case study of Switzerland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:282:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223021680. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.