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Regional impacts of electricity system transition in Central Europe until 2035

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  • Jan-Philipp Sasse

    (University of Geneva, Uni Carl Vogt)

  • Evelina Trutnevyte

    (University of Geneva, Uni Carl Vogt)

Abstract

Achieving current electricity sector targets in Central Europe (Austria, Denmark, France, Germany, Poland and Switzerland) will redistribute regional benefits and burdens at sub-national level. Limiting emerging regional inequalities would foster the implementation success. We model one hundred scenarios of electricity generation, storage and transmission for 2035 in these countries for 650 regions and quantify associated regional impacts on system costs, employment, greenhouse gas and particulate matter emissions, and land use. We highlight tradeoffs among the scenarios that minimize system costs, maximize regional equality, and maximize renewable electricity generation. Here, we show that these three aims have vastly different implementation pathways as well as associated regional impacts and cannot be optimized simultaneously. Minimizing system costs leads to spatially-concentrated impacts. Maximizing regional equality of system costs has higher, but more evenly distributed impacts. Maximizing renewable electricity generation contributes to minimizing regional inequalities, although comes at higher costs and land use impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Philipp Sasse & Evelina Trutnevyte, 2020. "Regional impacts of electricity system transition in Central Europe until 2035," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18812-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18812-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Mingming & Song, Wenwen & Liu, Liyun & Zhou, Dequn, 2024. "Optimal investment portfolio strategy for carbon neutrality of power enterprises," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    2. Guoxian Cao & Chaoyang Guo & Hezhong Li, 2022. "Risk Analysis of Public–Private Partnership Waste-to-Energy Incineration Projects from the Perspective of Rural Revitalization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Cost-effective options and regional interdependencies of reaching a low-carbon European electricity system in 2035," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    4. Pedersen, Tim T. & Victoria, Marta & Rasmussen, Morten G. & Andresen, Gorm B., 2021. "Modeling all alternative solutions for highly renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    5. Guillot, Victor & Siggini, Gildas & Assoumou, Edi, 2023. "Interactions between land and grid development in the transition to a decarbonized European power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    7. Wen, Xin & Jaxa-Rozen, Marc & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2022. "Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    8. Mier, Mathias & Siala, Kais & Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip, 2023. "Collaboration, decarbonization, and distributional effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    9. Lombardi, Francesco & Pickering, Bryn & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2023. "What is redundant and what is not? Computational trade-offs in modelling to generate alternatives for energy infrastructure deployment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    10. Nikas, Alexandros & Frilingou, Natasha & Heussaff, Conall & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Mittal, Shivika & Sampedro, Jon & Giarola, Sara & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Rinaldi, Lorenzo & Doukas, Haris & Gambhir, Aja, 2024. "Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    11. Wen, Xin & Heinisch, Verena & Müller, Jonas & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Comparison of statistical and optimization models for projecting future PV installations at a sub-national scale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    12. Lohr, C. & Schlemminger, M. & Peterssen, F. & Bensmann, A. & Niepelt, R. & Brendel, R. & Hanke-Rauschenbach, R., 2022. "Spatial concentration of renewables in energy system optimization models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 144-154.
    13. Chen, Yi-kuang & Kirkerud, Jon Gustav & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland, 2022. "Balancing GHG mitigation and land-use conflicts: Alternative Northern European energy system scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    14. Blom, Evelin & Söder, Lennart, 2022. "Accurate model reduction of large hydropower systems with associated adaptive inflow," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1059-1067.
    15. Heinisch, Verena & Dujardin, Jérôme & Gabrielli, Paolo & Jain, Pranjal & Lehning, Michael & Sansavini, Giovanni & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Schaffner, Christian & Schwarz, Marius & Trutnevyte, Evelina, 2023. "Inter-comparison of spatial models for high shares of renewable electricity in Switzerland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    16. Tafarte, Philip & Lehmann, Paul, 2023. "Quantifying trade-offs for the spatial allocation of onshore wind generation capacity – A case study for Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    17. Onodera, Hiroaki & Delage, Rémi & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2024. "The role of regional renewable energy integration in electricity decarbonization—A case study of Japan," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    18. Schwaeppe, Henrik & Thams, Marten Simon & Walter, Julian & Moser, Albert, 2024. "Finding better alternatives: Shadow prices of near-optimal solutions in energy system optimization modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    19. Javed, Muhammad Shahzad & Jurasz, Jakub & Dąbek, Paweł Bronisław & Ma, Tao & Jadwiszczak, Piotr & Niemierka, Elżbieta, 2023. "Green manufacturing facilities – Meeting CO2 emission targets considering power and heat supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    20. Franziska Steinberger & Tobias Minder & Evelina Trutnevyte, 2020. "Efficiency versus Equity in Spatial Siting of Electricity Generation: Citizen Preferences in a Serious Board Game in Switzerland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    21. Dong, Zhuojia & Yu, Xianyu & Chang, Ching-Ter & Zhou, Dequn & Sang, Xiuzhi, 2022. "How does feed-in tariff and renewable portfolio standard evolve synergistically? An integrated approach of tripartite evolutionary game and system dynamics," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 864-877.
    22. Jann Michael Weinand & Russell McKenna & Heidi Heinrichs & Michael Roth & Detlef Stolten & Wolf Fichtner, 2021. "Exploring the trilemma of cost-efficient, equitable and publicly acceptable onshore wind expansion planning," Papers 2106.15198, arXiv.org.
    23. Lehmann, Paul & Ammermann, Kathrin & Gawel, Erik & Geiger, Charlotte & Hauck, Jennifer & Heilmann, Jörg & Meier, Jan-Niklas & Ponitka, Jens & Schicketanz, Sven & Stemmer, Boris & Tafarte, Philip & Thr, 2021. "Managing spatial sustainability trade-offs: The case of wind power," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    24. Walch, Alina & Rüdisüli, Martin, 2023. "Strategic PV expansion and its impact on regional electricity self-sufficiency: Case study of Switzerland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    25. Mathias Mier & Kais Siala & Kristina Govorukha & Philip Mayer, 2020. "Costs and Benefits of Political and Physical Collaboration in the European Power Market," ifo Working Paper Series 343, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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