Analyzing the evolution trend of energy conservation and carbon reduction in transportation with promoting electrification in China

Promoting electrical transition in vehicle industry has become one of the main objectives for transportation sectors nowadays. However, no consensus has been reached as to whether the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) have superiority in energy conservation and carbon reduction with life-cycle thinking. Consequently, this paper applies network evolutionary game theory to investigate the evolution trend of industry energy conservation and carbon reduction with promoting electrification in China. To fit the real decision-making environment faced by manufacturers, the greenness competition interactions, competitive strategy invasion, and market uncertainty are further considered under the impact of dual credit policy. Results show that implementing dual credit policy makes electrical transition an irreversible trend for manufacturers, but it does not mean that internal combustion engine vehicle will disappear, rather, it coexists with EVs in a certain proportion, which is negatively related to consumer's acceptance toward EVs. Meanwhile, to address energy conservation and carbon reduction, manufacturers should be encouraged to choose a fuel reduction strategy to decelerate the industry electrification trend, thus acquiring better energy conservation performances. And before increasing consumer's acceptance toward EVs, increasing the proportion of renewable source in primary energy warrants greater urgency and effectiveness to achieve life-cycle emission reduction advantage of EVs.