IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v130y2019icp227-242.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of low emissions vehicles on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Watabe, Akihiro
  • Leaver, Jonathan
  • Ishida, Hiroyuki
  • Shafiei, Ehsan

Abstract

This paper examines transitioning to low carbon vehicles such as battery electric vehicles (BEVs), hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), and natural gas vehicles (NGVs) for curbing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Japan. Infrastructure development for fuel charging stations for BEVs, FCVs and NGVs and the carbon tax are evaluated as policy measures to promote these vehicle fleets as well as the reduction in the life cycle GHG emissions. Our analysis uses the newly developed Japanese multi-regional partial equilibrium system dynamics model UniSyD_JP. The energy supply sector consists of fossil fuels, nuclear energy, renewable energy and hydrogen and the nation's energy demand is projected by the expected population growth and the GDP outlook. The energy demand for the transport sector is endogenously determined by a consumer's vehicle choice characterized by the multinomial logit model. We examine five scenarios for different mixes of infrastructure development, carbon tax and projected oil price. The transition paths to a low carbon vehicle fleet are explored for the period of 2016–2060. We found that infrastructure development increases the penetration of FCVs and NGVs, but it will not reduce the life cycle GHG emissions. Significant emissions reduction requires both infrastructure development and high carbon taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Watabe, Akihiro & Leaver, Jonathan & Ishida, Hiroyuki & Shafiei, Ehsan, 2019. "Impact of low emissions vehicles on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 227-242.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:130:y:2019:i:c:p:227-242
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421519302307
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oshiro, Ken & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact on CO2 emission reduction in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 215-225.
    2. Ian Parry & Chandara Veung & Dirk Heine, 2015. "How Much Carbon Pricing Is In Countries’ Own Interests? The Critical Role Of Co-Benefits," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-26, November.
    3. Park, Sang Yong & Kim, Jong Wook & Lee, Duk Hee, 2011. "Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3307-3315, June.
    4. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2014. "Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 127-142.
    5. Yabe, Kuniaki & Shinoda, Yukio & Seki, Tomomichi & Tanaka, Hideo & Akisawa, Atsushi, 2012. "Market penetration speed and effects on CO2 reduction of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 529-540.
    6. Pasaoglu, Guzay & Harrison, Gillian & Jones, Lee & Hill, Andrew & Beaudet, Alexandre & Thiel, Christian, 2016. "A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: Scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 133-146.
    7. González Palencia, Juan C. & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2016. "Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 96-109.
    8. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Fazeli, Reza & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2018. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal incentives to promote electric vehicles in Iceland: Implications for government and consumer costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 431-443.
    9. Björn Nykvist & Måns Nilsson, 2015. "Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 329-332, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "The Role of Electric Vehicles in Road Transport Decarbonization: Exploring Environmental Impacts and Policy Implications through a Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Approaches," MPRA Paper 118596, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2023.
    2. Mónica Meireles & Margarita Robaina & Daniel Magueta, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Environmental Taxes in Reducing CO 2 Emissions in Passenger Vehicles: The Case of Mediterranean Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, May.
    3. Shoshanna Saxe & Dena Kasraian, 2020. "Rethinking environmental LCA life stages for transport infrastructure to facilitate holistic assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(5), pages 1031-1046, October.
    4. Blanco, Herib & Leaver, Jonathan & Dodds, Paul E. & Dickinson, Robert & García-Gusano, Diego & Iribarren, Diego & Lind, Arne & Wang, Changlong & Danebergs, Janis & Baumann, Martin, 2022. "A taxonomy of models for investigating hydrogen energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Chen, Peipei & Wu, Yi & Zhong, Honglin & Long, Yin & Meng, Jing, 2022. "Exploring household emission patterns and driving factors in Japan using machine learning methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    6. Yu, Liukai & Zheng, Junjun & Ma, Gang & Jiao, Yangyang, 2023. "Analyzing the evolution trend of energy conservation and carbon reduction in transportation with promoting electrification in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    7. Yunus Zengin & Serkan Naktiyok & Erdoğan Kaygın & Onur Kavak & Ethem Topçuoğlu, 2021. "An Investigation upon Industry 4.0 and Society 5.0 within the Context of Sustainable Development Goals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Liu, Yang & Zhang, Congrui & Xu, Xiaochuan & Ge, Yongxiang & Ren, Gaofeng, 2022. "Assessment of energy conservation potential and cost in open-pit metal mines: Bottom-up approach integrated energy conservation supply curve and ultimate pit limit," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. Lei Zhao & Wenbin Pan & Hao Lin, 2022. "Can Fujian Achieve Carbon Peak and Pollutant Reduction Targets before 2030? Case Study of 3E System in Southeastern China Based on System Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Haddad, Diala & Konstantinou, Theodora & Aliprantis, Dionysios & Gkritza, Konstantina & Pekarek, Steven & Haddock, John, 2022. "Analysis of the financial viability of high-powered electric roadways: A case study for the state of Indiana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    11. Tovar Reaños, Miguel A., 2020. "Initial incidence of carbon taxes and environmental liability. A vehicle ownership approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Jozef Gnap & Šimon Senko & Mariusz Kostrzewski & Mária Brídziková & Renáta Cződörová & Zdeněk Říha, 2021. "Research on the Relationship between Transport Infrastructure and Performance in Rail and Road Freight Transport—A Case Study of Japan and Selected European Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-20, June.
    13. Zhao, Min & Sun, Tao, 2022. "Dynamic spatial spillover effect of new energy vehicle industry policies on carbon emission of transportation sector in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    14. Yang Liu & Congrui Zhang & Yingying Huang & Zhixiong Xiao & Yaxuan Han & Gaofeng Ren, 2021. "Climate Impact of China’s Promotion of the Filling Mining Method: Bottom-Up Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Underground Metal Mines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Ma, Shuai & Lin, Meng & Lin, Tzu-En & Lan, Tian & Liao, Xun & Maréchal, François & Van herle, Jan & Yang, Yongping & Dong, Changqing & Wang, Ligang, 2021. "Fuel cell-battery hybrid systems for mobility and off-grid applications: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    16. Qingyou Yan & Guangyu Qin & Meijuan Zhang & Bowen Xiao, 2019. "Research on Real Purchasing Behavior Analysis of Electric Cars in Beijing Based on Structural Equation Modeling and Multinomial Logit Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-15, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. González Palencia, Juan C. & Otsuka, Yuki & Araki, Mikiya & Shiga, Seiichi, 2017. "Scenario analysis of lightweight and electric-drive vehicle market penetration in the long-term and impact on the light-duty vehicle fleet," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 1444-1462.
    2. Oliveira, Gabriela D. & Roth, Richard & Dias, Luis C., 2019. "Diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles considering dynamic preferences," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 83-99.
    3. Gnann, Till & Stephens, Thomas S. & Lin, Zhenhong & Plötz, Patrick & Liu, Changzheng & Brokate, Jens, 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 158-164.
    4. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi & Fazeli, Reza & Gestsson, Marías Halldór & Leaver, Jonathan, 2019. "Simulation-based appraisal of tax-induced electro-mobility promotion in Iceland and prospects for energy-economic development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Ranjit R. Desai & Eric Hittinger & Eric Williams, 2022. "Interaction of Consumer Heterogeneity and Technological Progress in the US Electric Vehicle Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.
    6. Mohammadreza Zolfagharian & Bob Walrave & A. Georges L. Romme & Rob Raven, 2020. "Toward the Dynamic Modeling of Transition Problems: The Case of Electric Mobility," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, December.
    7. Esteban Lopez-Arboleda & Alfonso T. Sarmiento & Laura M. Cardenas, 2021. "Systemic approach for integration of sustainability in evaluation of public policies for adoption of electric vehicles," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 399-417, August.
    8. Wang, Zhuowei & Yu, Jiangbo (Gabe) & Chen, Anthony & Fu, Xiaowen, 2024. "Subsidy policies towards zero-emission bus fleets: A systematic technical-economic analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Blanco, Herib & Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J. & Nijs, Wouter & Thiel, Christian & Faaij, André, 2019. "Soft-linking of a behavioral model for transport with energy system cost optimization applied to hydrogen in EU," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2015. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 95-112.
    11. Krause, Jette & Thiel, Christian & Tsokolis, Dimitrios & Samaras, Zissis & Rota, Christian & Ward, Andy & Prenninger, Peter & Coosemans, Thierry & Neugebauer, Stephan & Verhoeve, Wim, 2020. "EU road vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050 – Expert-based scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Esteban Lopez-Arboleda & Alfonso T. Sarmiento & Laura M. Cardenas, 2019. "Systematic Review of Integrated Sustainable Transportation Models for Electric Passenger Vehicle Diffusion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, April.
    13. Shafiei, Ehsan & Davidsdottir, Brynhildur & Fazeli, Reza & Leaver, Jonathan & Stefansson, Hlynur & Asgeirsson, Eyjolfur Ingi, 2018. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal incentives to promote electric vehicles in Iceland: Implications for government and consumer costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 431-443.
    14. Kangda Chen & Fuquan Zhao & Han Hao & Zongwei Liu, 2018. "Synergistic Impacts of China’s Subsidy Policy and New Energy Vehicle Credit Regulation on the Technological Development of Battery Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, November.
    15. Harrison, Gillian & Thiel, Christian, 2017. "An exploratory policy analysis of electric vehicle sales competition and sensitivity to infrastructure in Europe," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 165-178.
    16. Raffaele Salvucci & Stefan Petrović & Kenneth Karlsson & Markus Wråke & Tanu Priya Uteng & Olexandr Balyk, 2019. "Energy Scenario Analysis for the Nordic Transport Sector: A Critical Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, June.
    17. Thomas J.T. Van der Wardt & Amro M. Farid, 2017. "A Hybrid Dynamic System Assessment Methodology for Multi-Modal Transportation-Electrification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-25, May.
    18. Jiali Yu & Peng Yang & Kai Zhang & Faping Wang & Lixin Miao, 2018. "Evaluating the Effect of Policies and the Development of Charging Infrastructure on Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-25, September.
    19. Ettore Bompard & Daniele Grosso & Tao Huang & Francesco Profumo & Xianzhang Lei & Duo Li, 2018. "World Decarbonization through Global Electricity Interconnections," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-29, July.
    20. Huang, Qisheng & Xu, Yunjian & Courcoubetis, Costas, 2020. "Stackelberg competition between merchant and regulated storage investment in wholesale electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:130:y:2019:i:c:p:227-242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.