IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v235y2021ics0360544221015772.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impacts of the electricity demand pattern on electricity system cost and the electricity supply mix: A comprehensive modeling analysis for Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Kan, Xiaoming
  • Reichenberg, Lina
  • Hedenus, Fredrik

Abstract

Energy system models for long-term planning are widely used to explore the future electricity system. Typically, to represent the future electricity demand in these models, historical demand profiles are used directly or scaled up linearly. Although the volume change for the electricity demand is considered, the potential change of the demand pattern is ignored. Meanwhile, the future electricity demand pattern is highly uncertain due to various factors, including climate change, e-mobility, electric heating, and electric cooling. We use a techno-economic cost optimization model to investigate a stylized case and assess the effects on system cost and electricity supply mix of assuming different demand patterns for the models. Our results show that differences in diurnal demand patterns affect the system cost by less than 3%. Similarly, demand profiles with a flat seasonal variation or a winter peak result in only minor changes in system cost, as compared to the present demand profile. Demand profiles with a summer peak may display a system cost increase of up to 8%, whereas the electricity supply mix may differ by a factor of two. A more detailed case study is conducted for Europe and the results are consistent with the findings from the stylized case.

Suggested Citation

  • Kan, Xiaoming & Reichenberg, Lina & Hedenus, Fredrik, 2021. "The impacts of the electricity demand pattern on electricity system cost and the electricity supply mix: A comprehensive modeling analysis for Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:235:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221015772
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121329
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221015772
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121329?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Santos, Maria João & Ferreira, Paula & Araújo, Madalena, 2016. "A methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1400-1411.
    2. Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2014. "Residual load, renewable surplus generation and storage requirements in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 65-79.
    3. Bas J. van Ruijven & Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2019. "Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Reichenberg, Lina & Hedenus, Fredrik & Odenberger, Mikael & Johnsson, Filip, 2018. "The marginal system LCOE of variable renewables – Evaluating high penetration levels of wind and solar in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 914-924.
    5. Staffell, Iain & Pfenninger, Stefan, 2018. "The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 65-78.
    6. Zakeri, Behnam & Syri, Sanna, 2015. "Electrical energy storage systems: A comparative life cycle cost analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 569-596.
    7. Newbery, David & Pollitt, Michael G. & Ritz, Robert A. & Strielkowski, Wadim, 2018. "Market design for a high-renewables European electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 695-707.
    8. Schlachtberger, D.P. & Brown, T. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2017. "The benefits of cooperation in a highly renewable European electricity network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 469-481.
    9. Seljom, Pernille & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2017. "The impact of policy actions and future energy prices on the cost-optimal development of the energy system in Norway and Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 85-102.
    10. Behboodi, Sahand & Chassin, David P. & Crawford, Curran & Djilali, Ned, 2016. "Renewable resources portfolio optimization in the presence of demand response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 139-148.
    11. van Zuijlen, Bas & Zappa, William & Turkenburg, Wim & van der Schrier, Gerard & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Cost-optimal reliable power generation in a deep decarbonisation future," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    12. DeCarolis, Joseph & Daly, Hannah & Dodds, Paul & Keppo, Ilkka & Li, Francis & McDowall, Will & Pye, Steve & Strachan, Neil & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Usher, Will & Winning, Matthew & Yeh, Sonia & Zeyring, 2017. "Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 184-198.
    13. Kan, Xiaoming & Hedenus, Fredrik & Reichenberg, Lina, 2020. "The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power – the case of Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    14. Pudjianto, Danny & Djapic, Predrag & Aunedi, Marko & Gan, Chin Kim & Strbac, Goran & Huang, Sikai & Infield, David, 2013. "Smart control for minimizing distribution network reinforcement cost due to electrification," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 76-84.
    15. Boßmann, T. & Staffell, I., 2015. "The shape of future electricity demand: Exploring load curves in 2050s Germany and Britain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1317-1333.
    16. Brown, T. & Schlachtberger, D. & Kies, A. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2018. "Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 720-739.
    17. Maria Taljegard & Lisa Göransson & Mikael Odenberger & Filip Johnsson, 2019. "Electric Vehicles as Flexibility Management Strategy for the Electricity System—A Comparison between Different Regions of Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-19, July.
    18. Zhu, K. & Victoria, M. & Andresen, G.B. & Greiner, M., 2020. "Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    19. Zappa, William & Junginger, Martin & van den Broek, Machteld, 2019. "Is a 100% renewable European power system feasible by 2050?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 1027-1050.
    20. Gallo Cassarino, Tiziano & Sharp, Ed & Barrett, Mark, 2018. "The impact of social and weather drivers on the historical electricity demand in Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 176-185.
    21. Schlachtberger, D.P. & Brown, T. & Schäfer, M. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2018. "Cost optimal scenarios of a future highly renewable European electricity system: Exploring the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 100-114.
    22. Hagspiel, S. & Jägemann, C. & Lindenberger, D. & Brown, T. & Cherevatskiy, S. & Tröster, E., 2014. "Cost-optimal power system extension under flow-based market coupling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 654-666.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moez Krichen & Yasir Basheer & Saeed Mian Qaisar & Asad Waqar, 2023. "A Survey on Energy Storage: Techniques and Challenges," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-29, February.
    2. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2022. "A new approach to modeling cycles with summer and winter demand peaks as input variables for deep neural networks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    3. Sebastian Grzesiak & Adam Sulich, 2022. "Car Engines Comparative Analysis: Sustainable Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Wehrle, Sebastian & Gruber, Katharina & Schmidt, Johannes, 2021. "The cost of undisturbed landscapes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Doan, Bao & Vo, Duc Hong & Pham, Huy, 2023. "The net economic benefits of power plants: International evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Matsui, Kohei & Lin, Jie & Thu, Kyaw & Miyazaki, Takahiko, 2022. "On the performance improvement of an inverted Brayton Cycle using a regenerative heat and mass exchanger," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    7. Ruoso, Ana Cristina & Ribeiro, José Luis Duarte & Olaru, Doina, 2024. "Electric vehicles' impact on energy balance: Three-country comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    8. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Pham, Son Duy & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Electricity market crisis in Europe and cross border price effects: A quantile return connectedness analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Bai, Bo & Lee, Henry & Shi, Yiwei & Wang, Zheng, 2024. "Integrating solar electricity into a fossil fueled system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    10. Krystyna Gomółka & Piotr Kasprzak, 2022. "Household Ability of Expenditures on Electricity and Energy Resources in the Countries That Joined the EU after 2004," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Hamed, Mohammad M. & Ali, Hesham & Abdelal, Qasem, 2022. "Forecasting annual electric power consumption using a random parameters model with heterogeneity in means and variances," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    12. Ng, Rong Wang & Begam, K.M. & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar & Wong, Yee Wan & Chong, Lee Wai, 2022. "A novel dynamic two-stage controller of battery energy storage system for maximum demand reductions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    13. Reinert, Christiane & Nilges, Benedikt & Baumgärtner, Nils & Bardow, André, 2024. "This is SpArta: Rigorous Optimization of Regionally Resolved Energy Systems by Spatial Aggregation and Decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 367(C).
    14. Brumana, Giovanni & Franchini, Giuseppe & Ghirardi, Elisa & Perdichizzi, Antonio, 2022. "Techno-economic optimization of hybrid power generation systems: A renewables community case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reichenberg, Lina & Hedenus, Fredrik & Mattsson, Niclas & Verendel, Vilhelm, 2022. "Deep decarbonization and the supergrid – Prospects for electricity transmission between Europe and China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    2. Tom Brown & Mirko Schäfer & Martin Greiner, 2019. "Sectoral Interactions as Carbon Dioxide Emissions Approach Zero in a Highly-Renewable European Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Walter, Viktor & Göransson, Lisa, 2022. "Trade as a variation management strategy for wind and solar power integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    4. Kan, Xiaoming & Hedenus, Fredrik & Reichenberg, Lina, 2020. "The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power – the case of Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    5. Shirizadeh, Behrang & Quirion, Philippe, 2022. "The importance of renewable gas in achieving carbon-neutrality: Insights from an energy system optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    6. Schyska, Bruno U. & Kies, Alexander, 2020. "How regional differences in cost of capital influence the optimal design of power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    7. Zhu, K. & Victoria, M. & Andresen, G.B. & Greiner, M., 2020. "Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    8. Victoria, Marta & Gallego-Castillo, Cristobal, 2019. "Hourly-resolution analysis of electricity decarbonization in Spain (2017–2030)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 674-690.
    9. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    10. Maruf, Md. Nasimul Islam, 2021. "Open model-based analysis of a 100% renewable and sector-coupled energy system–The case of Germany in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    11. Neumann, Fabian & Hagenmeyer, Veit & Brown, Tom, 2022. "Assessments of linear power flow and transmission loss approximations in coordinated capacity expansion problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    12. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    13. Frysztacki, Martha Maria & Hörsch, Jonas & Hagenmeyer, Veit & Brown, Tom, 2021. "The strong effect of network resolution on electricity system models with high shares of wind and solar," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    14. Pedersen, Tim T. & Victoria, Marta & Rasmussen, Morten G. & Andresen, Gorm B., 2021. "Modeling all alternative solutions for highly renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    15. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    16. Wehrle, Sebastian & Gruber, Katharina & Schmidt, Johannes, 2021. "The cost of undisturbed landscapes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    17. Behrang Shirizadeh, 2020. "Carbon-neutral future with sector-coupling; relative role of different mitigation options in energy sector," Working Papers 2020.19, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    18. Brown, T. & Schlachtberger, D. & Kies, A. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2018. "Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 720-739.
    19. Ortiz-Imedio, Rafael & Caglayan, Dilara Gulcin & Ortiz, Alfredo & Heinrichs, Heidi & Robinius, Martin & Stolten, Detlef & Ortiz, Inmaculada, 2021. "Power-to-Ships: Future electricity and hydrogen demands for shipping on the Atlantic coast of Europe in 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    20. Maximilian Parzen & Fabian Neumann & Addrian H. Van Der Weijde & Daniel Friedrich & Aristides Kiprakis, 2021. "Beyond cost reduction: Improving the value of energy storage in electricity systems," Papers 2101.10092, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:235:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221015772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.