IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v158y2018icp693-708.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Runoff forecast uncertainty considered load adjustment model of cascade hydropower stations and its application

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Zhiqiang
  • Li, Rongbo
  • Li, Anqiang
  • Ji, Changming

Abstract

The power generation plan formulated based on the forecasted runoff is an important basis for the operation of hydropower station. However, due to the unavoidable forecast error, the ideal practical operation process usually does not match with the plan. In view of this, after a detailed analysis on the current processes of making and implementing power generation plan, this paper constructed an early warning mechanism according to different operation states of cascade hydropower stations, and considering the uncertainty of runoff forecast and the security constraints of power grid, a new load adjustment model with characteristics of real-time tracking, early warning and timely adjusting was proposed, and three basic principles of load adjustment were put forward in this model. Taking the cascade hydropower stations in Yalong River of China as an instance, two typical scenarios that threaten the operation safety of hydropower stations are simulated and analyzed. Results show that the proposed model can be used to scientifically adjust the output of hydropower stations through the proposed adjustment principles and strategies, and ensure the safe and stable operation of power grid, and avoid the output shortage and water abandonment of hydropower stations caused by the uncertainty of runoff forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Zhiqiang & Li, Rongbo & Li, Anqiang & Ji, Changming, 2018. "Runoff forecast uncertainty considered load adjustment model of cascade hydropower stations and its application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 693-708.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:158:y:2018:i:c:p:693-708
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218311484
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.083?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shen, Jianjian & Cheng, Chuntian & Cheng, Xiong & Lund, Jay R., 2016. "Coordinated operations of large-scale UHVDC hydropower and conventional hydro energies about regional power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 433-446.
    2. Shang, Yizi & Lu, Shibao & Ye, Yuntao & Liu, Ronghua & Shang, Ling & Liu, Chunna & Meng, Xianyong & Li, Xiaofei & Fan, Qixiang, 2018. "China’ energy-water nexus: Hydropower generation potential of joint operation of the Three Gorges and Qingjiang cascade reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 14-32.
    3. Jiang, Zhiqiang & Li, Anqiang & Ji, Changming & Qin, Hui & Yu, Shan & Li, Yuanzheng, 2016. "Research and application of key technologies in drawing energy storage operation chart by discriminant coefficient method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 774-786.
    4. Jiang, Zhiqiang & Ji, Changming & Qin, Hui & Feng, Zhongkai, 2018. "Multi-stage progressive optimality algorithm and its application in energy storage operation chart optimization of cascade reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 309-323.
    5. Wang, Wenxiao & Li, Chaoshun & Liao, Xiang & Qin, Hui, 2017. "Study on unit commitment problem considering pumped storage and renewable energy via a novel binary artificial sheep algorithm," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 612-626.
    6. Sanjeet Kumar & Mukesh Tiwari & Chandranath Chatterjee & Ashok Mishra, 2015. "Reservoir Inflow Forecasting Using Ensemble Models Based on Neural Networks, Wavelet Analysis and Bootstrap Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4863-4883, October.
    7. Tarroja, Brian & AghaKouchak, Amir & Samuelsen, Scott, 2016. "Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 295-305.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. He, Zhongzheng & Zhou, Jianzhong & Xie, Mengfei & Jia, Benjun & Bao, Zhengfeng & Qin, Hui & Zhang, Hairong, 2019. "Study on guaranteed output constraints in the long term joint optimal scheduling for the hydropower station group," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1210-1224.
    2. Yi Liu & Zhiqiang Jiang & Zhongkai Feng & Yuyun Chen & Hairong Zhang & Ping Chen, 2019. "Optimization of Energy Storage Operation Chart of Cascade Reservoirs with Multi-Year Regulating Reservoir," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Meng, Xuejiao & Chang, Jianxia & Wang, Xuebin & Wang, Yimin, 2019. "Multi-objective hydropower station operation using an improved cuckoo search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 425-439.
    4. El Hage, Hicham & Herez, Amal & Ramadan, Mohamad & Bazzi, Hassan & Khaled, Mahmoud, 2018. "An investigation on solar drying: A review with economic and environmental assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 815-829.
    5. He, Zhongzheng & Zhou, Jianzhong & Qin, Hui & Jia, Benjun & He, Feifei & Liu, Guangbiao & Feng, Kuaile, 2020. "A fast water level optimal control method based on two stage analysis for long term power generation scheduling of hydropower station," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    6. Zhiqiang Jiang & Yaqi Qiao & Yuyun Chen & Changming Ji, 2018. "A New Reservoir Operation Chart Drawing Method Based on Dynamic Programming," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Feng, Zhong-kai & Niu, Wen-jing & Cheng, Chun-tian & Liao, Sheng-li, 2017. "Hydropower system operation optimization by discrete differential dynamic programming based on orthogonal experiment design," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 720-732.
    8. Liu, Jia & Zeng, Peter Pingliang & Xing, Hao & Li, Yalou & Wu, Qiuwei, 2020. "Hierarchical duality-based planning of transmission networks coordinating active distribution network operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Niu, Wen-jing & Feng, Zhong-kai & Cheng, Chun-tian, 2018. "Optimization of variable-head hydropower system operation considering power shortage aspect with quadratic programming and successive approximation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1020-1028.
    10. Jiang, Sufan & Gao, Shan & Pan, Guangsheng & Zhao, Xin & Liu, Yu & Guo, Yasen & Wang, Sicheng, 2020. "A novel robust security constrained unit commitment model considering HVDC regulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    11. Zhiqiang Jiang & Zhengyang Tang & Yi Liu & Yuyun Chen & Zhongkai Feng & Yang Xu & Hairong Zhang, 2019. "Area Moment and Error Based Forecasting Difficulty and its Application in Inflow Forecasting Level Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4553-4568, October.
    12. Toufani, Parinaz & Nadar, Emre & Kocaman, Ayse Selin, 2022. "Short-term assessment of pumped hydro energy storage configurations: Up, down, or closed?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 1086-1095.
    13. Wang, Jin & Zhao, Zhipeng & Zhou, Jinglin & Cheng, Chuntian & Su, Huaying, 2024. "Developing operating rules for a hydro–wind–solar hybrid system considering peak-shaving demands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    14. Turner, Sean W.D. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Kim, Son H. & Clarke, Leon & Edmonds, Jae, 2017. "Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2081-2090.
    15. Zhao, Yuhuan & Shi, Qiaoling & li, Hao & Qian, Zhiling & Zheng, Lu & Wang, Song & He, Yizhang, 2022. "Simulating the economic and environmental effects of integrated policies in energy-carbon-water nexus of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    16. Su, Chengguo & Cheng, Chuntian & Wang, Peilin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2019. "Optimization model for long-distance integrated transmission of wind farms and pumped-storage hydropower plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 285-293.
    17. Teotónio, Carla & Fortes, Patrícia & Roebeling, Peter & Rodriguez, Miguel & Robaina-Alves, Margarita, 2017. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and the power sector in Portugal: A partial equilibrium approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 788-799.
    18. Li, Chaoshun & Wang, Wenxiao & Chen, Deshu, 2019. "Multi-objective complementary scheduling of hydro-thermal-RE power system via a multi-objective hybrid grey wolf optimizer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 241-255.
    19. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    20. Kate Forrest & Brian Tarroja & Felicia Chiang & Amir AghaKouchak & Scott Samuelsen, 2018. "Assessing climate change impacts on California hydropower generation and ancillary services provision," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 395-412, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:158:y:2018:i:c:p:693-708. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.