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Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach

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  • Vögele, Stefan
  • Hansen, Patrick
  • Poganietz, Witold-Roger
  • Prehofer, Sigrid
  • Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang

Abstract

A major goal concerning the energy transition in Germany is the reduction of energy usage. In Germany in 2011, private households consumed 2194 PJ and have been identified as a sector with high energy reduction potential. The energy demand of this sector is dependent on many linked quantitative and qualitative factors (e.g., number of persons and demographic structure, expenditures, cost of energy-saving measures, willingness to invest, and level of coordination in international climate policy). In our study, we introduce a multilevel cross-impact approach which allows for the definition and quantification of data for scenario analysis while taking the interdependences between different factors on the global, national and sectoral levels into account. This approach makes it possible to overcome limitations that conventional energy models are usually confronted with. By applying a trend analysis in combination with information on the interdependence of relevant factors on the global and national levels, consistent sectoral views of the private household's future are created.

Suggested Citation

  • Vögele, Stefan & Hansen, Patrick & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Prehofer, Sigrid & Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2017. "Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 937-946.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:120:y:2017:i:c:p:937-946
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Hoffart, Franziska, 2022. "What is a feasible and 1.5°C-aligned hydrogen infrastructure for Germany? A multi-criteria economic study based on socio-technical energy scenarios," Ruhr Economic Papers 979, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle & Stefan Vögele & Wolfgang Hauser & Hannah Kosow & Witold-Roger Poganietz & Sigrid Prehofer, 2020. "Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1723-1741, October.
    3. Besagni, Giorgio & Borgarello, Marco, 2018. "The determinants of residential energy expenditure in Italy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 369-386.
    4. Bouw, Kathelijne & Noorman, Klaas Jan & Wiekens, Carina J. & Faaij, André, 2021. "Local energy planning in the built environment: An analysis of model characteristics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Thomas Pregger & Tobias Naegler & Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle & Sigrid Prehofer & Wolfgang Hauser, 2020. "Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition—lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1743-1762, October.
    6. Yin, Yuwei & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2022. "Bottlenecks of LNG supply chain in energy transition: A case study of China using system dynamics simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    7. Vanessa J. Schweizer, 2020. "Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1705-1722, October.
    8. Witold-Roger Poganietz & Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, 2020. "Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1699-1704, October.
    9. Lisa Hanna Broska & Stefan Vögele & Hawal Shamon & Inga Wittenberg, 2022. "On the Future(s) of Energy Communities in the German Energy Transition: A Derivation of Transformation Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-31, March.
    10. Chonghao Zhao, 2023. "An approach to extend Cross-Impact Balance method in multiple timespans," Papers 2308.06223, arXiv.org.
    11. Panula-Ontto, Juha & Luukkanen, Jyrki & Kaivo-oja, Jari & O'Mahony, Tadhg & Vehmas, Jarmo & Valkealahti, Seppo & Björkqvist, Tomas & Korpela, Timo & Järventausta, Pertti & Majanne, Yrjö & Kojo, Matti , 2018. "Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 504-513.
    12. Jürgen Kopfmüller & Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle & Tobias Naegler & Jens Buchgeister & Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam & Volker Stelzer, 2021. "Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-34, March.
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