IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v182y2022ics0040162522003468.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stability of cross impact matrices

Author

Listed:
  • Jodlbauer, Herbert
  • Tripathi, Shailesh
  • Brunner, Manuel
  • Bachmann, Nadine

Abstract

The relationship between drivers and outcomes in technological and social systems is usually difficult to interpret. Pairwise direct impacts between variables can be defined by cross-impact matrices. In research, direct impact matrices' row and column sums are primarily utilized to identify critical, influential, dependent, neuter, and inert variables. In this paper, all existing direct and indirect impact paths between variables are considered, with the aims of finding conditions under which the rank order remains stable (i.e., stable equilibrium state exists) and showing the difference between direct impact matrix and stable state matrix. It is shown numerically that the rank order and thus the categorization of variables can change significantly. A stable state does not always exist, but more direct impacts between variables reduce the risk of instability. The proposed method can support management in strategic planning and decision-making: Management should strive for a stable state that serves to determine the rank order on which informed decisions are based. Caution should be exercised when no stable state exists because the variables cannot be categorized, making the system uncontrollable. Management is advised to incorporate additional impact paths between variables into the system—assuming they were incomplete—which ideally establish a stable state.

Suggested Citation

  • Jodlbauer, Herbert & Tripathi, Shailesh & Brunner, Manuel & Bachmann, Nadine, 2022. "Stability of cross impact matrices," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:182:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522003468
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121822
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162522003468
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121822?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Beynaghi, Ali & Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Maknoon, Reza, 2016. "An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 162-171.
    2. Cho, Keun-Tae & Kwon, Cheol-Shin, 2004. "Hierarchies with dependence of technological alternatives: A cross-impact hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 420-432, July.
    3. Ali Akbar Barati & Hossein Azadi & Milad Dehghani Pour & Philippe Lebailly & Mostafa Qafori, 2019. "Determining Key Agricultural Strategic Factors Using AHP-MICMAC," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Panula-Ontto, J. & Piirainen, K.A., 2018. "EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 89-100.
    5. Asan, Umut & Erhan Bozdag, Cafer & Polat, Seçkin, 2004. "A fuzzy approach to qualitative cross impact analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 443-458, December.
    6. Kadaifci, Cigdem & Asan, Umut & Bozdag, Erhan, 2020. "A new 2-additive Choquet integral based approach to qualitative cross-impact analysis considering interaction effects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Wiek, Arnim & Walter, Alexander I., 2009. "A transdisciplinary approach for formalized integrated planning and decision-making in complex systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 360-370, August.
    8. Daniella Laureiro‐Martínez & Stefano Brusoni, 2018. "Cognitive flexibility and adaptive decision‐making: Evidence from a laboratory study of expert decision makers," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 1031-1058, April.
    9. Saaty, Thomas L. & Vargas, Luis G., 1987. "Uncertainty and rank order in the analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 107-117, October.
    10. Elizabeth Maitland & André Sammartino, 2015. "Decision making and uncertainty: The role of heuristics and experience in assessing a politically hazardous environment," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1554-1578, October.
    11. Sykes, Pete & Bell, Margaret & Dissanayake, Dilum, 2018. "Combined use of a backcast scenario and cross-impact matrix analysis to identify causes of uncertainty in a nascent transport infrastructure project," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 124-140.
    12. Meissner, Philip & Brands, Christian & Wulf, Torsten, 2017. "Quantifiying blind spots and weak signals in executive judgment: A structured integration of expert judgment into the scenario development process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 244-253.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Herbert Jodlbauer & Manuel Brunner & Nadine Bachmann & Shailesh Tripathi & Matthias Thürer, 2023. "Supply Chain Management: A Structured Narrative Review of Current Challenges and Recommendations for Action," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Maria Luisa Cotana & Maria Rita Filocamo & Rubina Michela Galeotti, 2024. "Exploring Social Media's Role in Planning and Control Strategies," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 19(1), pages 116-116, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kadaifci, Cigdem & Asan, Umut & Bozdag, Erhan, 2020. "A new 2-additive Choquet integral based approach to qualitative cross-impact analysis considering interaction effects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Beynaghi, Ali & Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Maknoon, Reza, 2016. "An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 162-171.
    3. Roland Broll & Gerald Blumberg & Christoph Weber, "undated". "Thesenpapier: Constructing Consistent Energy Scenarios using Cross Impact Matrices," EWL Working Papers 2005, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics.
    4. Vögele, Stefan & Hansen, Patrick & Poganietz, Witold-Roger & Prehofer, Sigrid & Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang, 2017. "Building scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 937-946.
    5. Bootz, Jean-Philippe & Michel, Sophie & Pallud, Jessie & Monti, Régine, 2022. "Possible changes of Industry 4.0 in 2030 in the face of uberization: Results of a participatory and systemic foresight study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. Mohammed A. Al-Ghamdi & Khalid S. Al-Gahtani, 2022. "Integrated Value Engineering and Life Cycle Cost Modeling for HVAC System Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-30, February.
    7. Andra Lovasz & Nicu Cornel Sabau & Ioana Borza & Radu Brejea, 2023. "Production and Quality of Biodiesel under the Influence of a Rapeseed Fertilization System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-27, April.
    8. Maciej Nowak, 2010. "Interactive Multicriteria Decision Aiding Under Risk—Methods and Applications," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 69-91, October.
    9. Mikhailov, L., 2004. "A fuzzy approach to deriving priorities from interval pairwise comparison judgements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 687-704, December.
    10. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    11. Wang, Ying-Ming & Elhag, Taha M.S., 2007. "A goal programming method for obtaining interval weights from an interval comparison matrix," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 458-471, February.
    12. Ji-Hee Lee & Woo-Young Chun & Jun-Ho Choi, 2021. "Weighting the Attributes of Human-Related Activities for Fire Safety Measures in Historic Villages," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-12, March.
    13. Guercini, Simone & Milanesi, Matilde, 2020. "Heuristics in international business: A systematic literature review and directions for future research," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 26(4).
    14. Zeshui Xu, 2013. "Compatibility Analysis of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Preference Relations in Group Decision Making," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 463-482, May.
    15. Sheth, Ananya & Sinfield, Joseph V., 2022. "An analytical framework to compare innovation strategies and identify simple rules," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    16. Levary, Reuven R. & Wan, Ke, 1999. "An analytic hierarchy process based simulation model for entry mode decision regarding foreign direct investment," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 661-677, December.
    17. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Stauffacher, Michael & Scholz, Roland W., 2012. "Linking stakeholder visions with resource allocation scenarios and multi-criteria assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 762-772.
    18. Stefanos Dosis & George P. Petropoulos & Kleomenis Kalogeropoulos, 2023. "A Geospatial Approach to Identify and Evaluate Ecological Restoration Sites in Post-Fire Landscapes," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, December.
    19. Zaras, Kazimierz, 2001. "Rough approximation of a preference relation by a multi-attribute stochastic dominance for determinist and stochastic evaluation problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 305-314, April.
    20. Daniel R Clark & Dan Li & Dean A Shepherd, 2018. "Country familiarity in the initial stage of foreign market selection," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(4), pages 442-472, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:182:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522003468. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.