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Stochastic techno-economic assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation and the Response Surface Methodology: The case of an innovative linear Fresnel CSP (concentrated solar power) system

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  • Bendato, Ilaria
  • Cassettari, Lucia
  • Mosca, Marco
  • Mosca, Roberto

Abstract

Combining technological solutions with investment profitability is a critical aspect in designing both traditional and innovative renewable power plants. Often, the introduction of new advanced-design solutions, although technically interesting, does not generate adequate revenue to justify their utilization. In this study, an innovative methodology is developed that aims to satisfy both targets. On the one hand, considering all of the feasible plant configurations, it allows the analysis of the investment in a stochastic regime using the Monte Carlo method. On the other hand, the impact of every technical solution on the economic performance indicators can be measured by using regression meta-models built according to the theory of Response Surface Methodology. This approach enables the design of a plant configuration that generates the best economic return over the entire life cycle of the plant. This paper illustrates an application of the proposed methodology to the evaluation of design solutions using an innovative linear Fresnel Concentrated Solar Power system.

Suggested Citation

  • Bendato, Ilaria & Cassettari, Lucia & Mosca, Marco & Mosca, Roberto, 2016. "Stochastic techno-economic assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation and the Response Surface Methodology: The case of an innovative linear Fresnel CSP (concentrated solar power) system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 309-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:101:y:2016:i:c:p:309-324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.02.048
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    4. Wu, Yunna & Zhang, Buyuan & Wu, Chenghao & Zhang, Ting & Liu, Fangtong, 2019. "Optimal site selection for parabolic trough concentrating solar power plant using extended PROMETHEE method: A case in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1910-1927.
    5. Daabo, Ahmed M. & Mahmoud, Saad & Al-Dadah, Raya K., 2016. "The effect of receiver geometry on the optical performance of a small-scale solar cavity receiver for parabolic dish applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 513-525.
    6. Hoz, Jordi de la & Martín, Helena & Montalà, Montserrat & Matas, José & Guzman, Ramon, 2018. "Assessing the 2014 retroactive regulatory framework applied to the concentrating solar power systems in Spain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1377-1399.
    7. Jiayuan Song & Zeyi Jiang & Yongjie Zhang & Zhicheng Han & Yuanxiang Lu & Huiyao Dong & Ying Zhang, 2023. "Economic Analysis of an Integrated Steel Plant Equipped with a Blast Furnace or Oxygen Blast Furnace," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Rômulo de Oliveira Azevêdo & Paulo Rotela Junior & Luiz Célio Souza Rocha & Gianfranco Chicco & Giancarlo Aquila & Rogério Santana Peruchi, 2020. "Identification and Analysis of Impact Factors on the Economic Feasibility of Photovoltaic Energy Investments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-40, September.
    9. Coronas, Sergio & Martín, Helena & de la Hoz, Jordi & García de Vicuña, Luis & Castilla, Miguel, 2021. "MONTE-CARLO probabilistic valuation of concentrated solar power systems in Spain under the 2014 retroactive regulatory framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Beltagy, Hani, 2021. "The effect of glass on the receiver and the use of two absorber tubes on optical performance of linear fresnel solar concentrators," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
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