IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v74y2014is1ps5-s15.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fuelling the future?

Author

Listed:
  • Warren, Paul
  • De Simone, Giuseppe

Abstract

Questions regarding exhaustible resource supply are best posed in terms of how extraction costs and prices will evolve as lower quality resources are exploited. To address such questions in the context of uranium the authors develop a model of long-run cost dynamics which (1) builds on a classic model of declining uranium ore grades, (2) includes both new and existing parameterizations of extraction cost structures, (3) incorporates the extraction cost impacts of learning and productivity growth, and (4) is driven by the IAEA׳s most recent uranium demand projection. The authors emphasize the importance of allowing interaction between temporal versus cumulative cost mitigating processes (productivity growth and learning respectively) and such processes׳ interaction with demand growth profiles. It is demonstrated that – under rather conservative assumptions on the dynamics of these processes – the rate of increase of uranium extraction costs is significantly attenuated relative to that which might otherwise occur. Indeed in some cases – again, for rather conservative assumptions on productivity growth and learning – it may not be unreasonable to anticipate that such costs may decline (as have those of several commodities over the past century). The policy implications of such attenuated – or even declining – uranium costs are significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Warren, Paul & De Simone, Giuseppe, 2014. "Fuelling the future?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(S1), pages 5-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:74:y:2014:i:s1:p:s5-s15
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.08.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514004649
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.08.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dale, Michael, 2012. "Meta-analysis of non-renewable energy resource estimates," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 102-122.
    2. Parry, Ian, 1997. "Productivity Trends in the Natural Resource Industries," RFF Working Paper Series dp-97-39, Resources for the Future.
    3. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    4. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
    5. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, September.
    6. Geoffrey Heal, 1976. "The Relationship Between Price and Extraction Cost for a Resource with a Backstop Technology," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 371-378, Autumn.
    7. Geoffrey Rothwell, "undated". "Market Power in Uranium Enrichment," Discussion Papers 08-032, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    9. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 461.
    10. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, September.
    11. AfDB AfDB, . "Annual Report 2012 (Portuguese Version)," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 463.
    12. WorldFish, 2013. "Annual report 2012/13," Monographs, The WorldFish Center, number 40306, April.
    13. ., 2012. "Water Supply," Chapters, in: Regulatory Reform of Public Utilities, chapter 5, pages 75-86, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin, G. & Girieud, R., 2016. "Middle-term thorium strategy for PWR fleets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 147-153.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    2. Vicknair, David & Tansey, Michael & O'Brien, Thomas E., 2022. "Measuring fossil fuel reserves: A simulation and review of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Hart, Rob, 2016. "Non-renewable resources in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-20.
    4. Tarek Roshdy Gebba & Mohamed Gamal Aboelmaged, 2016. "Corporate Governance of UAE Financial Institutions: A Comparative Study between Conventional and Islamic Banks," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(5), pages 1-7.
    5. Kamiar Mohaddes, 2013. "Econometric modelling of world oil supplies: terminal price and the time to depletion," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 37(2), pages 162-193, June.
    6. Juliana Subtil Lacerda & Jeroen C. J. M. Van den Bergh, 2014. "International Diffusion of Renewable Energy Innovations: Lessons from the Lead Markets for Wind Power in China, Germany and USA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Elin Berg & Snorre Kverndokk & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1999. "Optimal Oil Exploration under Climate Treaties," Discussion Papers 245, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    8. Toman, Michael & Krautkraemer, Jeffrey, 2003. "Fundamental Economics of Depletable Energy Supply," RFF Working Paper Series dp-03-01, Resources for the Future.
    9. Flood, Mark D. & Lemieux, Victoria L. & Varga, Margaret & William Wong, B.L., 2016. "The application of visual analytics to financial stability monitoring," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 180-197.
    10. Renaud Coulomb & Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2019. "Optimal Transition from Coal to Gas and Renewable Power Under Capacity Constraints and Adjustment Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(2), pages 557-590, June.
    11. Molyneaux, Lynette & Wagner, Liam & Foster, John, 2016. "Rural electrification in India: Galilee Basin coal versus decentralised renewable energy micro grids," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 422-436.
    12. van den Bremer, Ton & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Wills, Samuel, 2016. "The Elephant In The Ground: Managing Oil And Sovereign Wealth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 113-131.
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511261452 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. World Bank Group, 2015. "FYR Macedonia Public Expenditure Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 23808, The World Bank Group.
    15. Mahanta, Ratul & Chowdhury, Jayashree & Nath, Hiranya K., 2016. "Health costs of arsenic contamination of drinking water in Assam, India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 30-42.
    16. García-Posada, Miguel & Marchetti, Marcos, 2016. "The bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy: The impact of the VLTROs on credit supply in Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 427-441.
    17. Collins, Ross D. & Selin, Noelle E. & de Weck, Olivier L. & Clark, William C., 2017. "Using inclusive wealth for policy evaluation: Application to electricity infrastructure planning in oil-exporting countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 23-34.
    18. Ulibarri, Carlos A., 1996. "Non-conventional fuel tax credits and the extraction R&D model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 207-215, September.
    19. Roberto Ferreira da Cunha & Antoine Missemer, 2020. "The Hotelling rule in non‐renewable resource economics: A reassessment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 800-820, May.
    20. Yang, Daojian & Qi, Ershi & Li, Yajiao, 2015. "Quick response and supply chain structure with strategic consumers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-14.
    21. Bird, Lori & Lew, Debra & Milligan, Michael & Carlini, E. Maria & Estanqueiro, Ana & Flynn, Damian & Gomez-Lazaro, Emilio & Holttinen, Hannele & Menemenlis, Nickie & Orths, Antje & Eriksen, Peter Børr, 2016. "Wind and solar energy curtailment: A review of international experience," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 577-586.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:74:y:2014:i:s1:p:s5-s15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.