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How Does the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) Influence Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Yields and U.S. Mortgage Rates?

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  • Diana Hancock
  • Wayne Passmore

Abstract

type="main"> We conduct an empirical analysis of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) yields and mortgage rates. We estimate a cointergrated, error-correction model that links Federal Reserve securities purchases and stocks of Treasury and MBS securities to equilibrium MBS yields and mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve's accumulation of MBS and Treasury securities lowered MBS yields and mortgage rates by more than what would have been suggested by changes in market expectations alone, suggesting that portfolio rebalancing effects of LSAPs are an important consideration for monetary policy transmission. Our estimates also suggest that the Federal Reserve must hold a substantial market share of agency MBS or of Treasury securities to significantly lower MBS yields and in turn significantly lower mortgage rates.

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  • Diana Hancock & Wayne Passmore, 2015. "How Does the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases (LSAPs) Influence Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Yields and U.S. Mortgage Rates?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 855-890, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:43:y:2015:i:4:p:855-890
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1540-6229.12109
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrew J Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens & Morten O Ravn, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1503-1560.
    3. Wang, Ling, 2022. "The dynamics of money supply determination under asset purchase programs: A market-based versus a bank-based financial system," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2016. "Cost of funds indexed mortgage contracts with government-backed catastrophic insurance (COFI-Cats): A realistic alternative to the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 109-130.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Patrick Shultz, 2019. "Bond Flows and Liquidity: Do Foreigners Matter?," Working Paper Series 2019-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Wayne Passmore & Alexander H. von Hafften, 2017. "Improving the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Steve Sharpe & Shane Sherlund, 2016. "Crowding Out Effects of Refinancing on New Purchase Mortgages," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 48(2), pages 209-239, March.
    8. Mitsuru Katagiri & Junnosuke Shino & Koji Takahashi, 2023. "To Lend or Not to Lend: The Bank of Japan’s ETF Purchase Program and Securities Lending," Working Papers 2304, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    9. Franconi, Alessandro & Rella, Giacomo, 2023. "Monetary Policy across the Wealth Distribution," SocArXiv hn3pc, Center for Open Science.
    10. Wayne Passmore & Alexander H. von Hafften, 2018. "Financing Affordable and Sustainable Homeownership with Fixed-COFI Mortgages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-009, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Gang Wang, 2019. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing Announcements on the Mortgage Market: An Event Study Approach," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, February.
    12. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Fischer, Eric & Shultz, Patrick J., 2021. "Bond flows and liquidity: Do foreigners matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Wang, Ling, 2019. "Measuring the effects of unconventional monetary policy on MBS spreads: A comparative study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 235-251.
    14. Changhyun Lee, 2024. "The outside option channel of central bank asset purchase programs: A tale of two crises," Working Papers 363, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    15. W. Scott Frame, 2015. "Introduction to Special Issue: Government Involvement in Residential Mortgage Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 807-819, November.
    16. Maeda, Kou & Shino, Junnosuke & Takahashi, Koji, 2022. "Counteracting large-scale asset purchase program: The Bank of Japan’s ETF purchases and securities lending," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 563-576.
    17. Wang, Ling, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases, banks’ risky security holdings and profitability: Macro and micro evidence from Japan and the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 347-364.

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