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A dynamic simulation of the ILUC effects of biofuel use in the USA

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  • Oladosu, Gbadebo
  • Kline, Keith

Abstract

The global indirect land use change (ILUC) implications of biofuel use in the United States of America (USA) from 2001 to 2010 are evaluated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. The effects of biofuels production on agricultural land area vary by year; from a net expansion of 0.17ha per 1000 gallons produced (2002) to a net contraction of −0.13ha per 1000 gallons (2018) in Case 1 of our simulation. In accordance with the general narrative about the implications of biofuel policy, agricultural land area increased in many regions of the world. However, oil-export dependent economies experienced agricultural land contraction because of reductions in their revenues. Reducing crude oil imports is a major goal of biofuel policy, but the land use change implications have received little attention in the literature. Simulations evaluating the effects of doubling supply elasticities for land and fossil resources show that these parameters can significantly influence the land use change estimates. Therefore, research that provides empirically-based and spatially-detailed agricultural land-supply curves and capability to project future fossil energy prices is critical for improving estimates of the effects of biofuel policy on land use.

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  • Oladosu, Gbadebo & Kline, Keith, 2013. "A dynamic simulation of the ILUC effects of biofuel use in the USA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1127-1139.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:1127-1139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gallagher, Paul W., 2010. "Corn Ethanol Growth in the US Without Adverse Foreign Land Use Change: Defining Limits and Devising Policies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31350, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    5. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2012. "Estimates of the global indirect energy-use emission impacts of USA biofuel policy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 85-96.
    6. Kretschmer, Bettina & Peterson, Sonja, 2010. "Integrating bioenergy into computable general equilibrium models -- A survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 673-686, May.
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    8. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373.
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    1. Austin, K.G. & Jones, J.P.H. & Clark, C.M., 2022. "A review of domestic land use change attributable to U.S. biofuel policy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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