IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i6p3612-3620.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examining the link between carbon dioxide emissions and the share of industry in GDP: Modeling and testing for the G-7 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Hocaoglu, Fatih Onur
  • Karanfil, Fatih

Abstract

In this paper, the relationship between per capita CO2 emissions and the share of industrial value added in gross domestic product (GDP) for the G-7 countries is discussed using a novel approach. It is assumed that per capita CO2 emissions are correspondent to the share of industrial value added in GDP. A model is developed using hidden Markov process to search this initial assumption. In the model, the data for industrial share in GDP are assigned to be the observations, while the data for per capita CO2 emissions represent the hidden process, which may be then predicted using the ratio of industrial value added to GDP. The data set covers the period from 1970 to 2008 and the model is tested for the G-7 countries. The study findings show that, except in the case of Canada, the hidden Markov model performs reasonably well in tracking per capita CO2 emissions. The study results provide also a basis for a number of policy implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Hocaoglu, Fatih Onur & Karanfil, Fatih, 2011. "Examining the link between carbon dioxide emissions and the share of industry in GDP: Modeling and testing for the G-7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3612-3620, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:6:p:3612-3620
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511002576
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, James B., 2007. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4772-4778, October.
    2. Say, Nuriye Peker & Yucel, Muzaffer, 2006. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Turkey: Empirical analysis and future projection based on an economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3870-3876, December.
    3. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Income and CO2 emissions: Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 413-423, February.
    5. Phu Nguyen Van, 2005. "Distribution Dynamics of CO 2 Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 32(4), pages 495-508, December.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2005. "Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: Evidence from Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 857-872, November.
    7. Stern, David I. & Common, Michael S., 2001. "Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 162-178, March.
    8. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    9. Mark Strazicich & John List, 2003. "Are CO 2 Emission Levels Converging Among Industrial Countries?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 24(3), pages 263-271, March.
    10. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    11. Jobert, Thomas & Karanfil, Fatih & Tykhonenko, Anna, 2010. "Convergence of per capita carbon dioxide emissions in the EU: Legend or reality?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1364-1373, November.
    12. Joakim Westerlund & Syed Basher, 2008. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Century of Panel Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 109-120, May.
    13. Chris Bataille & Nic Rivers & Paulus Mau & Chris Joseph & Jian-Jun Tu, 2007. "How Malleable are the Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensities of the G7 Nations?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 145-170.
    14. Karanfil, Fatih, 2009. "How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1191-1194, April.
    15. Zhang, Zhongxiang, 2000. "Decoupling China's Carbon Emissions Increase from Economic Growth: An Economic Analysis and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 739-752, April.
    16. Esso, Loesse Jacques, 2010. "Threshold cointegration and causality relationship between energy use and growth in seven African countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1383-1391, November.
    17. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    18. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "The emissions, energy consumption, and growth nexus: Evidence from the commonwealth of independent states," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 650-655, January.
    19. Karanfil, Fatih & Ozkaya, Ata, 2007. "Estimation of real GDP and unrecorded economy in Turkey based on environmental data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4902-4908, October.
    20. Joseph E. Aldy, 2007. "Divergence in State-Level Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(3), pages 353-369.
    21. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 661-666, January.
    22. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng & Xie, Naiming, 2010. "The relation between Chinese economic development and energy consumption in the different periods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5189-5198, September.
    23. Lozano, Sebastián & Gutiérrez, Ester, 2008. "Non-parametric frontier approach to modelling the relationships among population, GDP, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 687-699, July.
    24. Joseph Aldy, 2006. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 533-555, April.
    25. Ghosh, Sajal, 2010. "Examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for India: A multivariate cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3008-3014, June.
    26. Marco Barassi & Matthew Cole & Robert Elliott, 2008. "Stochastic Divergence or Convergence of Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Re-examining the Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 121-137, May.
    27. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Das, Aparna & Paul, Saikat Kumar, 2014. "CO2 emissions from household consumption in India between 1993–94 and 2006–07: A decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 90-105.
    2. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    3. Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Fan Hongzhong & Zeeshan Fareed & Roksana Bannya, 2020. "Testing Non-Linear Nexus between Service Sector and CO 2 Emissions in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-29, January.
    4. Lisa Gianmoena & Vicente Rios, 2018. "The Determinants of CO2 Emissions Differentials with Cross-Country Interaction Effects: A Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Discussion Papers 2018/234, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    6. Edquist, Harald & Bergmark, Pernilla, 2024. "How is mobile broadband intensity affecting CO2 emissions? – A macro analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(2).
    7. Xie, Minghua & Yi, Xiangyu & Liu, Kui & Sun, Chuanwang & Kong, Qingbao, 2023. "How much natural gas does China need: An empirical study from the perspective of energy transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    8. Hugo Morais & Tiago Pinto & Zita Vale, 2020. "Adjacent Markets Influence Over Electricity Trading—Iberian Benchmark Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Environmental Kuznets Curve and the role of energy consumption in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Nov 2011.
    2. Jian-Xin Wu & Ling-Yun He, 2017. "The Distribution Dynamics of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Intensity across Chinese Provinces: A Weighted Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Thomas Bassetti & Nikos Benos & Stelios Karagiannis, 2013. "CO 2 Emissions and Income Dynamics: What Does the Global Evidence Tell Us?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(1), pages 101-125, January.
    4. Christidou, Maria & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Sharma, Abhijit, 2013. "On the stationarity of per capita carbon dioxide emissions over a century," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 918-925.
    5. Wang, Yiming & Zhang, Pei & Huang, Dake & Cai, Changda, 2014. "Convergence behavior of carbon dioxide emissions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 75-80.
    6. Mariam Camarero & Yurena Mendoza & Javier Ordóñez, 2011. "Re-examining CO2 emissions. Is the assessment of convergence meaningless?," Working Papers 2011/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    7. Kounetas, Konstantinos Elias, 2018. "Energy consumption and CO2 emissions convergence in European Union member countries. A tonneau des Danaides?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 111-127.
    8. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Khan, Atif Maqbool & Bibi, Salma & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2017. "Convergence of per capita CO2 emissions across the globe: Insights via wavelet analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 86-97.
    9. Marrero, Gustavo A., 2010. "Greenhouse gases emissions, growth and the energy mix in Europe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1356-1363, November.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Pakistan: Cointegration and Granger causality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 2947-2953.
    11. Nazlioglu, Saban & Payne, James E. & Lee, Junsoo & Rayos-Velazquez, Marco & Karul, Cagin, 2021. "Convergence in OPEC carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from new panel stationarity tests with factors and breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Cuihong Ye & Yiguo Chen & Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Tsangyao Chang, 2020. "CO2 emissions converge in China and G7 countries? Further evidence from Fourier quantile unit root test," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(2), pages 348-363, March.
    13. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris, 2020. "Stochastic convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: Evidence from emerging economies, 1921–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2017. "Per capita carbon dioxide emissions across U.S. states by sector and fossil fuel source: Evidence from club convergence tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 365-372.
    15. Wang, Juan & Zhang, Kezhong, 2014. "Convergence of carbon dioxide emissions in different sectors in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 605-611.
    16. Ivanovski, Kris & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa, 2020. "Convergence and determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia: A regional analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Wu, Jianxin & Wu, Yanrui & Guo, Xiumei & Cheong, Tsun Se, 2016. "Convergence of carbon dioxide emissions in Chinese cities: A continuous dynamic distribution approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 207-219.
    18. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zheng & Zhao, Changhong & Xiong, Minpeng & Guo, Jingsheng, 2014. "Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 508-523.
    19. Paul Evans & Ji Uk Kim, 2016. "Convergence analysis as spatial dynamic panel regression and distribution dynamics of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 emissions in Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 729-751, May.
    20. Li, Xuehui & Lin, Boqiang, 2013. "Global convergence in per capita CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 357-363.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:6:p:3612-3620. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.