How is mobile broadband intensity affecting CO2 emissions? – A macro analysis

This paper investigates the association between relative mobile broadband penetration (i.e. mobile broadband connections in total mobile connections) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions globally. The study is based on 181 countries for the period 2002–2020. The results indicate an initial increase in CO2 emissions for a country at an average emission level once mobile broadband is introduced. Possible explanations might be initial investment in network infrastructure and increased consumption of electricity. However, on average for the period 2002–2020 the continuous relationship between mobile broadband (defined as speeds of at least 256 kb/s) and CO2 is significantly negative in a statistical sense, i.e. emissions at a country level significantly reduce as mobile broadband penetration increase. Based on a two-stage model and controlling for additional independent variables (i.e. GDP per capita, population density, the share of electricity consumption that comes from fossil fuel, industry as a share of GDP, a regulation index, fixed broadband penetration, working age population as a share of total population and a human capital index), we conclude that on average a 10 percentage points increase in relative mobile broadband penetration causes a 7 percent reduction of CO2 emissions per capita (given that the instrumental variable strategy, as assumed, identifies causal effects). Thus, the results shows that investments in mobile infrastructure over longer periods of time can contribute to mitigating climate change. However, the relationship is only significant for high-income countries (i.e. countries with a GNI of $4096 or above). The results remain significant when mobile broadband is defined as mobile broadband connections per 100 inhabitants.