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Analysis of Iran's crude oil export future capacity

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  • Kamran Azadi, A.
  • Yarmohammad, Mohammad H.

Abstract

The paper analyzes Iran's oil export capacity and the factors affecting it. First, the local energy demand is reviewed and crude oil, with 5.7% annual growth rate, is introduced as a major source to respond to the increasing domestic energy demand. Then, the national plans for controlling the local demand and replacing oil with other types of energy carriers are reviewed to create a view over the future of local demand for crude oil in Iran. In the next step, crude oil production and exploration situation in Iran are investigated and the required increase in production to maintain the present level of export is calculated. By estimating the average capital expenditures for adding each barrel of new capacity to Iran's daily oil production, the necessary annual investment to compensate the production drop and domestic consumption growth for maintaining the export is introduced. Then, the future of oil export in Iran is predicted in three optimistic, reference, and pessimistic scenarios on the basis of the country's ability in managing the financial resources in upstream oil industry. Finally, domestic and foreign investment and the history of buyback contracts and their undeniable role in development of Iranian oil and gas projects are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamran Azadi, A. & Yarmohammad, Mohammad H., 2011. "Analysis of Iran's crude oil export future capacity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3316-3326, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:6:p:3316-3326
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Beynaghi, Ali & Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Maknoon, Reza, 2016. "An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 162-171.
    3. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shui-Bo & Gao, Ying, 2014. "On oil investment and production: A comparison of production sharing contracts and buyback contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 395-402.
    4. Mollahosseini, Arash & Hosseini, Seyed Amid & Jabbari, Mostafa & Figoli, Alberto & Rahimpour, Ahmad, 2017. "Renewable energy management and market in Iran: A holistic review on current state and future demands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 774-788.
    5. Cairns, Robert D. & Calfucura, Enrique, 2012. "OPEC: Market failure or power failure?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 570-580.
    6. Bakirtas, Tahsin & Akpolat, Ahmet Gökçe, 2020. "The relationship between crude oil exports, crude oil prices and military expenditures in some OPEC countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Amirnekooei, K. & Ardehali, M.M. & Sadri, A., 2012. "Integrated resource planning for Iran: Development of reference energy system, forecast, and long-term energy-environment plan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 374-385.
    8. Nejat, Payam & Morsoni, Abdul Kasir & Jomehzadeh, Fatemeh & Behzad, Hamid & Saeed Vesali, Mohamad & Majid, M.Z.Abd., 2013. "Iran's achievements in renewable energy during fourth development program in comparison with global trend," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 561-570.
    9. Dudlák, Tamás, 2018. "After the sanctions: Policy challenges in transition to a new political economy of the Iranian oil and gas sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 464-475.
    10. Nejat, Payam & Jomehzadeh, Fatemeh & Taheri, Mohammad Mahdi & Gohari, Mohammad & Abd. Majid, Muhd Zaimi, 2015. "A global review of energy consumption, CO2 emissions and policy in the residential sector (with an overview of the top ten CO2 emitting countries)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 843-862.

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