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Iran's oil development scenarios by 2025

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  • Abbaszadeh, Payam
  • Maleki, Abbas
  • Alipour, Mohammad
  • Maman, Yaser Kanani

Abstract

Energy resources in Iran consist of the fourth largest oil reserves and the second largest natural gas reserves in the world. At present, due to political reasons, the investment trend does not go over well. Based on the Fifth Development Strategy, Iran needs $200 billion of investment in the country's first industry (i.e. oil), and given the objectives of the perspective document, the country needs more than $500 billion investment during the next 15 years. This paper examined Iran's energy status. Afterwards, oil future scenarios which developed by Research center of Iranian parliament, have been analyzed. Then four scenarios that express different modes of production and consumption are developed, namely: Thunder, Behemoth, Snowman, and Poor Addict. Finally, a comprehensive analysis for achieving the secure and sustainable future on the geopolitical, Geo-economic and Geo-cultural situation is presented.

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  • Abbaszadeh, Payam & Maleki, Abbas & Alipour, Mohammad & Maman, Yaser Kanani, 2013. "Iran's oil development scenarios by 2025," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 612-622.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:56:y:2013:i:c:p:612-622
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.026
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    2. Edalati, Saeed & Ameri, Mehran & Iranmanesh, Masoud & Sadeghi, Zeinolabedin, 2017. "Solar photovoltaic power plants in five top oil-producing countries in Middle East: A case study in Iran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1271-1280.
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    4. Najafi, G. & Ghobadian, B. & Mamat, R. & Yusaf, T. & Azmi, W.H., 2015. "Solar energy in Iran: Current state and outlook," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 931-942.
    5. Alipour, M. & Hafezi, R. & Amer, M. & Akhavan, A.N., 2017. "A new hybrid fuzzy cognitive map-based scenario planning approach for Iran's oil production pathways in the post–sanction period," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 851-864.
    6. Alizadeh, Reza & Lund, Peter D. & Beynaghi, Ali & Abolghasemi, Mahdi & Maknoon, Reza, 2016. "An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 162-171.
    7. Mollahosseini, Arash & Hosseini, Seyed Amid & Jabbari, Mostafa & Figoli, Alberto & Rahimpour, Ahmad, 2017. "Renewable energy management and market in Iran: A holistic review on current state and future demands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 774-788.
    8. Chofreh, Abdoulmohammad Gholamzadeh & Goni, Feybi Ariani & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Seyed Moosavi, Seyed Mohsen & Davoudi, Mehdi & Zeinalnezhad, Masoomeh, 2021. "Covid-19 shock: Development of strategic management framework for global energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Alizadeh, Reza & Soltanisehat, Leili & Lund, Peter D. & Zamanisabzi, Hamed, 2020. "Improving renewable energy policy planning and decision-making through a hybrid MCDM method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    10. Bahrami, Mohsen & Abbaszadeh, Payam, 2016. "Development a scenario-based model for Iran׳s energy future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 963-970.
    11. Ebrahimi, Mehri & Rahmani, Donya, 2019. "A five-dimensional approach to sustainability for prioritizing energy production systems using a revised GRA method: A case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 345-354.
    12. Alipour, M. & Alighaleh, S. & Hafezi, R. & Omranievardi, M., 2017. "A new hybrid decision framework for prioritizing funding allocation to Iran's energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 388-402.
    13. Dudlák, Tamás, 2018. "After the sanctions: Policy challenges in transition to a new political economy of the Iranian oil and gas sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 464-475.
    14. Alipour, Mohammad & Hafezi, Reza & Ervural, Bilal & Kaviani, Mohamad Amin & Kabak, Özgür, 2018. "Long-term policy evaluation: Application of a new robust decision framework for Iran's energy exports security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 914-931.
    15. Ghaboulian Zare, Sara & Alipour, Mohammad & Hafezi, Mehdi & Stewart, Rodney A. & Rahman, Anisur, 2022. "Examining wind energy deployment pathways in complex macro-economic and political settings using a fuzzy cognitive map-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).

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    Keywords

    Iran; Oil; Scenarios;
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