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Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto

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  • Abadie, Luis M.
  • Chamorro, José M.

Abstract

Coal-fired power plants enjoy a significant advantage relative to gas plants in terms of cheaper fuel cost. This advantage may erode (or turn into disadvantage) depending on CO2 emission allowance price. Financial risks are further reinforced when the price of electricity is determined by natural gas-fired plants' marginal costs. We aim to empirically assess the risks in EU coal plants' margins up to the year 2020. Parameter values are derived from actual market data. Monte Carlo simulation allows compute the expected value and risk profile of coal plants' earnings. Future allowance prices may spell significant risks on utilities' balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Abadie, Luis M. & Chamorro, José M., 2009. "Income risk of EU coal-fired power plants after Kyoto," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5304-5316, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5304-5316
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yuan, Jiahai & Li, Xinying & Xu, Chuanbo & Zhao, Changhong & Liu, Yuanxin, 2019. "Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 623-640.
    2. Kotowicz, Janusz & Michalski, Sebastian, 2015. "Influence of four-end HTM (high temperature membrane) parameters on the thermodynamic and economic characteristics of a supercritical power plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 662-673.
    3. Huiyue Diao & Majid Ghorbani, 2018. "Production risk caused by human factors: a multiple case study of thermal power plants," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Capitán Herráiz, Álvaro & Rodríguez Monroy, Carlos, 2012. "Evaluation of the trading development in the Iberian Energy Derivatives Market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 973-984.
    5. Chamorro, José M. & Abadie, Luis M. & de Neufville, Richard & Ilić, Marija, 2012. "Market-based valuation of transmission network expansion. A heuristic application in GB," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 302-320.
    6. Charalampous, Georgios & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Risk Management and Portfolio Optimization for Gas- and Coal-fired Power Plants in Germany: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," FCN Working Papers 23/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

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