IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v30y2008i4p1712-1727.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Storage and the electricity forward premium

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas, Stratford
  • Popova, Julia

Abstract

We develop and test a model describing the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. The model is constructed by linking the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to an established model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. The model predicts a sharply negative effect of gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. Empirical results, based on PJM data, strongly support the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas, Stratford & Popova, Julia, 2008. "Storage and the electricity forward premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1712-1727, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:1712-1727
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140-9883(08)00009-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    2. Holbrook Working, 1948. "Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-28.
    3. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    4. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, June.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1877-1900 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:wvu:wpaper:06-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, September.
    3. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    4. Haugom, Erik & Ullrich, Carl J., 2012. "Market efficiency and risk premia in short-term forward prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1931-1941.
    5. Pieroni, Luca & Ricciarelli, Matteo, 2008. "Modelling dynamic storage function in commodity markets: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1080-1092, September.
    6. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    7. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19065 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 19065, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    9. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
    10. Robert Jarrow, 2010. "Convenience yields," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 25-43, April.
    11. Stein-Erik Fleten & Ronald Huisman & Mehtap Kilic & Enrico Pennings & Sjur Westgaard, 2014. "Electricity futures prices: time varying sensitivity to fundamentals," Working Papers 2014/21, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    12. Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel & Gonzalo, Jesús, 2010. "Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 95-107, September.
    13. Longstaff, Francis A & Wang, Ashley, 2002. "ELECTRICITY FORWARD PRICES: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3mw4q41x, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    14. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bard & Oglend, Atle, 2015. "Production Risk and the Futures Price Risk Premium?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/13, University of Stavanger.
    15. Amir Yaron & Leonid Kogan & Dmitry Livdan, 2004. "Futures Prices in a Production Economy with Investment Constraints," 2004 Meeting Papers 128, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Geman, Hélyette & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2003. "A Class of Marked Point Processes for Modelling Electricity Prices," ESSEC Working Papers DR 03004, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    17. Jaime Casassus & Peng Liu & Ke Tang, 2011. "Relative Scarcity of Commodities with a Long-Term Economic Relationship and the Correlation of Futures Returns," Documentos de Trabajo 404, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    18. Lin, Chuanyi & Roberts, Matthew C., 2006. "Storability on Modeling Commodity Futures Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21484, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Ivar Ekeland & Delphine Lautier & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2019. "Hedging pressure and speculation in commodity markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(1), pages 83-123, July.
    20. Spodniak, Petr & Collan, Mikael, 2018. "Forward risk premia in long-term transmission rights: The case of electricity price area differentials (EPAD) in the Nordic electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 194-206.
    21. Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
    22. Gao, Lin & Hitzemann, Steffen & Shaliastovich, Ivan & Xu, Lai, 2022. "Oil volatility risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 456-491.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:1712-1727. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.