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A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production

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  • Höök, Mikael
  • Aleklett, Kjell

Abstract

Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001, Norway reached its peak production and began to decline. The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2008. "A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4262-4271, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:11:p:4262-4271
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barros, C.P. & Assaf, A., 2009. "Bootstrapped efficiency measures of oil blocks in Angola," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4098-4103, October.
    2. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    3. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2011. "An analysis of oil production by OPEC countries: Persistence, breaks, and outliers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 442-453, January.
    4. Welkenhuysen, Kris & Rupert, Jort & Compernolle, Tine & Ramirez, Andrea & Swennen, Rudy & Piessens, Kris, 2017. "Considering economic and geological uncertainty in the simulation of realistic investment decisions for CO2-EOR projects in the North Sea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 745-761.
    5. Lucas Fievet & Zal`an Forr`o & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2014. "Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology," Papers 1407.3652, arXiv.org.
    6. Adrien Desroziers & Yassine Kirat & Arsham Reisinezhad, 2023. "Carbon curse: As you extract, so you will burn," Working Papers 2023.09, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    7. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Managi, Shunsuke, 2009. "Productivity assessment of Angola's oil blocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2009-2015.
    8. Sällh, David & Höök, Mikael & Grandell, Leena & Davidsson, Simon, 2014. "Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 333-345.
    9. Fiévet, L. & Forró, Z. & Cauwels, P. & Sornette, D., 2015. "A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production: Application to the UK and Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 288-297.
    10. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    11. Leena Grandell & Charles A.S. Hall & Mikael Höök, 2011. "Energy Return on Investment for Norwegian Oil and Gas from 1991 to 2008," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(11), pages 1-21, October.
    12. Höök, M. & Söderbergh, B. & Aleklett, K., 2009. "Future Danish oil and gas export," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1826-1834.
    13. Charles F. Mason and Gavin Roberts, 2018. "Price Elasticity of Supply and Productivity: An Analysis of Natural Gas Wells in Wyoming," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    14. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    15. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    16. Menegaki, Angeliki N. & Tsagarakis, Konstantinos P., 2015. "Rich enough to go renewable, but too early to leave fossil energy?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1465-1477.

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