IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v36y2008i11p4262-4271.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production

Author

Listed:
  • Höök, Mikael
  • Aleklett, Kjell

Abstract

Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001, Norway reached its peak production and began to decline. The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be -13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of -40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2008. "A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4262-4271, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:11:p:4262-4271
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(08)00393-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, C.J., 2006. "The Rimini Protocol an oil depletion protocol: Heading off economic chaos and political conflict during the second half of the age of oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 1319-1325, August.
    2. Hirsch, Robert L., 2008. "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 881-889, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
    2. Lucas Fievet & Zal`an Forr`o & Peter Cauwels & Didier Sornette, 2014. "Forecasting future oil production in Norway and the UK: a general improved methodology," Papers 1407.3652, arXiv.org.
    3. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Managi, Shunsuke, 2009. "Productivity assessment of Angola's oil blocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2009-2015.
    4. Sorrell, Steve & Speirs, Jamie & Bentley, Roger & Miller, Richard & Thompson, Erica, 2012. "Shaping the global oil peak: A review of the evidence on field sizes, reserve growth, decline rates and depletion rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 709-724.
    5. Leena Grandell & Charles A.S. Hall & Mikael Höök, 2011. "Energy Return on Investment for Norwegian Oil and Gas from 1991 to 2008," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(11), pages 1-21, October.
    6. Höök, M. & Söderbergh, B. & Aleklett, K., 2009. "Future Danish oil and gas export," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1826-1834.
    7. Charles F. Mason and Gavin Roberts, 2018. "Price Elasticity of Supply and Productivity: An Analysis of Natural Gas Wells in Wyoming," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    8. Barros, C.P. & Assaf, A., 2009. "Bootstrapped efficiency measures of oil blocks in Angola," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4098-4103, October.
    9. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Payne, James E., 2011. "An analysis of oil production by OPEC countries: Persistence, breaks, and outliers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 442-453, January.
    10. Welkenhuysen, Kris & Rupert, Jort & Compernolle, Tine & Ramirez, Andrea & Swennen, Rudy & Piessens, Kris, 2017. "Considering economic and geological uncertainty in the simulation of realistic investment decisions for CO2-EOR projects in the North Sea," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 745-761.
    11. Adrien Desroziers & Yassine Kirat & Arsham Reisinezhad, 2023. "Carbon curse: As you extract, so you will burn," Working Papers 2023.09, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    12. Menegaki, Angeliki N. & Tsagarakis, Konstantinos P., 2015. "Rich enough to go renewable, but too early to leave fossil energy?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1465-1477.
    13. Sällh, David & Höök, Mikael & Grandell, Leena & Davidsson, Simon, 2014. "Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 333-345.
    14. Fiévet, L. & Forró, Z. & Cauwels, P. & Sornette, D., 2015. "A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production: Application to the UK and Norway," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 288-297.
    15. Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Lardelli, Michael & Snowden, Simon & Söderbergh, Bengt, 2010. "The Peak of the Oil Age - Analyzing the world oil production Reference Scenario in World Energy Outlook 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1398-1414, March.
    16. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. van Vliet, Oscar & van den Broek, Machteld & Turkenburg, Wim & Faaij, André, 2011. "Combining hybrid cars and synthetic fuels with electricity generation and carbon capture and storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 248-268, January.
    2. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    3. Lloyd, Bob & Forest, Andrew S., 2010. "The transition to renewables: Can PV provide an answer to the peak oil and climate change challenges?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7378-7394, November.
    4. Fix, Blair, 2015. "Putting Power Back Into Growth Theory," Review of Capital as Power, Capital As Power - Toward a New Cosmology of Capitalism, vol. 1(2), pages 1-37.
    5. Tang, Xu & Zhang, Baosheng & Höök, Mikael & Feng, Lianyong, 2010. "Forecast of oil reserves and production in Daqing oilfield of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 3097-3102.
    6. Shkolnikov, E.I. & Zhuk, A.Z. & Vlaskin, M.S., 2011. "Aluminum as energy carrier: Feasibility analysis and current technologies overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4611-4623.
    7. Krumdieck, Susan & Page, Shannon & Dantas, André, 2010. "Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 306-322, June.
    8. Höök, Mikael & Fantazzini, Dean & Angelantoni, André & Snowden, Simon, 2013. "Hydrocarbon liquefaction: viability as a peak oil mitigation strategy," MPRA Paper 46957, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dale, Michael & Krumdieck, Susan & Bodger, Pat, 2011. "Net energy yield from production of conventional oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7095-7102.
    10. Fantazzini, Dean & Höök, Mikael & Angelantoni, André, 2011. "Global oil risks in the early 21st century," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7865-7873.
    11. Cui, Lianbiao & Yue, Suyun & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Duan, Mei, 2023. "Exploring the risk and economic vulnerability of global energy supply chain interruption in the context of Russo-Ukrainian war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Brecha, Robert J., 2012. "Logistic curves, extraction costs and effective peak oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 586-597.
    13. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & Mediavilla, Margarita & de Castro, Carlos & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis Javier, 2014. "Fossil fuel depletion and socio-economic scenarios: An integrated approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 641-666.
    14. Exner, Andreas & Politti, Emilio & Schriefl, Ernst & Erker, Susanna & Stangl, Rosemarie & Baud, Sacha & Warmuth, Hannes & Matzenberger, Julian & Kranzl, Lukas & Paulesich, Reinhard & Windhaber, Markus, 2016. "Measuring regional resilience towards fossil fuel supply constraints. Adaptability and vulnerability in socio-ecological Transformations-the case of Austria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 128-137.
    15. Vanderschuren, M.J.W.A & Lane, T.E. & Wakeford, J.J., 2010. "Can the South African transport system surmount reduced crude oil availability?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6092-6100, October.
    16. Verbruggen, Aviel & Al Marchohi, Mohamed, 2010. "Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5572-5581, October.
    17. Harvey, L.D.D., 2013. "Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 87-103.
    18. Robert J. Brecha, 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, February.
    19. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    20. Friedrichs, Jörg, 2010. "Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4562-4569, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:11:p:4262-4271. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.