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Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import

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  • Sällh, David
  • Höök, Mikael
  • Grandell, Leena
  • Davidsson, Simon

Abstract

This paper presents an updated historic oil production analysis as well as an updated future oil production forecast for Norway and Denmark. Previous forecasts conducted by academic and official agencies using a variety of methodologies are contrasted and their accuracy examined. The bottom-up field-by-field methodology is found to be precise in the short-term, as it deviates by less than 1% from actual production.

Suggested Citation

  • Sällh, David & Höök, Mikael & Grandell, Leena & Davidsson, Simon, 2014. "Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 333-345.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:65:y:2014:i:c:p:333-345
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.11.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Höök, Mikael & Hirsch, Robert & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2262-2272, June.
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    4. Höök, M. & Söderbergh, B. & Aleklett, K., 2009. "Future Danish oil and gas export," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1826-1834.
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    8. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Bentley, Roger & Söderbergh, Bengt & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 860-870.
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    Cited by:

    1. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V. & Danilova, A.A., 2017. "Multimodel forecasting of non-renewable resources production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 448-460.
    2. Berk, Istemi & Ediger, Volkan Ş., 2016. "Forecasting the coal production: Hubbert curve application on Turkey's lignite fields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-203.
    3. Wachtmeister, Henrik & Henke, Petter & Höök, Mikael, 2018. "Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 138-153.

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