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The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK

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  • Anderson, Kevin L.
  • Mander, Sarah L.
  • Bows, Alice
  • Shackley, Simon
  • Agnolucci, Paolo
  • Ekins, Paul

Abstract

This paper describes the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios, the first to take account of CO2 emissions from the whole of the UK's energy system, including emissions from international shipping and aviation. It builds on Part I, which outlined the backcasting methodology developed to generate the scenarios. The five scenarios produced through this process articulate alternative vision of a substantially decarbonised society in 2050, ranging from a halving of energy consumption from current levels to a near doubling. This work demonstrates that a 60% reduction in the UK's CO2 emissions is achievable, even when all CO2 sources are taken into account. The impacts and consequences of the scenarios were assessed by means of a multi-criteria framework which cautions us that the high energy demand scenarios will have a large impact on broader sustainability criteria.

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  • Anderson, Kevin L. & Mander, Sarah L. & Bows, Alice & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3764-3773, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:10:p:3764-3773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin L., 2007. "Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK Government's 60% carbon-reduction target?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 103-110, March.
    2. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
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    7. Austrian Institute of Economic Research & University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change & Graz University of Technology, Institute for Process and Particle Engineering & KWI Consult, 2009. "Energiestrukturen für 2020. Technisches Basisdokument für die österreichische Energiestrategie," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 36983, March.
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    14. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Barton, John & O'Grady, Áine & Ogunkunle, Damiete & Pudjianto, Danny & Robertson, Elizabeth, 2014. "Linking a storyline with multiple models: A cross-scale study of the UK power system transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 26-42.
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    Keywords

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