IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v38y2010i6p3067-3077.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model

Author

Listed:
  • Dagoumas, [alpha].S.
  • Barker, T.S.

Abstract

This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagoumas, [alpha].S. & Barker, T.S., 2010. "Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3067-3077, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:6:p:3067-3077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(10)00075-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, Kevin L. & Mander, Sarah L. & Bows, Alice & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part II: Scenarios for a 60% CO2 reduction in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3764-3773, October.
    2. Barker, Terry & Ekins, Paul & Foxon, Tim, 2007. "Macroeconomic effects of efficiency policies for energy-intensive industries: The case of the UK Climate Change Agreements, 2000-2010," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 760-778, July.
    3. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique & Barker, Terry & Riahi, Keywan & Boeters, Stefan & Chateau, Jean & Scrieciu, Serban & van Vliet, Jasper & Masui, Toshihiko & Blok, Kornelis & Blomen, Eliane , 2009. "Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5125-5139, December.
    4. Bohringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2008. "Combining bottom-up and top-down," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 574-596, March.
    5. Brannlund, Runar & Ghalwash, Tarek & Nordstrom, Jonas, 2007. "Increased energy efficiency and the rebound effect: Effects on consumption and emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-17, January.
    6. Anderson, Dennis & Winne, Sarah, 2007. "Energy system change and external effects in climate change mitigation," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 359-378, June.
    7. Terry Barker, 1999. "Achieving a 10% Cut in Europe's Carbon Dioxide Emissions using Additional Excise Duties: Coordinated, Uncoordinated and Unilateral Action using the Econometric Model E3ME," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 401-422.
    8. Ottmar Edenhofer & Kai Lessmann & Claudia Kemfert & Michael Grubb & Jonathan Köhler, 2006. "Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(1_suppl), pages 57-108, January.
    9. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John, 2008. "The rebound effect: Microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 636-649, April.
    10. Cosmi, C. & Di Leo, S. & Loperte, S. & Macchiato, M. & Pietrapertosa, F. & Salvia, M. & Cuomo, V., 2009. "A model for representing the Italian energy system: The NEEDS-TIMES experience," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 763-776, May.
    11. Das, Anjana & Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico & Virdis, Maria R., 2007. "ACROPOLIS: An example of international collaboration in the field of energy modelling to support greenhouse gases mitigation policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 763-771, February.
    12. Ferdinand A. Gul & Judy S. L. Tsui, 2004. "Introduction and overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Governance of East Asian Corporations, chapter 1, pages 1-26, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Dagoumas, A.S. & Kalaitzakis, E. & Papagiannis, G.K. & Dokopoulos, P.S., 2007. "A post-Kyoto analysis of the Greek electric sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1551-1563, March.
    14. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Weyant, John & de la Chesnaye, Francisco, 2006. "Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 102-120, January.
    15. Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
    16. Terry Barker, Haoran Pan, Jonathan Kohler, Rachel Warren, and Sarah Winne, 2006. "Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 241-258.
    17. Weyant, John P., 2004. "Introduction and overview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 501-515, July.
    18. Dagoumas, A.S. & Papagiannis, G.K. & Dokopoulos, P.S., 2006. "An economic assessment of the Kyoto Protocol application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 26-39, January.
    19. Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
    20. Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2007. "Financial Liberalisation, Consumption And Wealth Effects In Seven Oecd Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 254-267, May.
    21. Schulz, Thorsten F. & Kypreos, Socrates & Barreto, Leonardo & Wokaun, Alexander, 2008. "Intermediate steps towards the 2000Â W society in Switzerland: An energy-economic scenario analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1303-1317, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cochran, Jaquelin & Mai, Trieu & Bazilian, Morgan, 2014. "Meta-analysis of high penetration renewable energy scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 246-253.
    2. Dai, Hancheng & Mischke, Peggy & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Closing the gap? Top-down versus bottom-up projections of China’s regional energy use and CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1355-1373.
    3. Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
    4. Nebojsa Nakicenovic & Peter Kolp & Keywan Riahi & Mikiko Kainuma & Tatsuya Hanaoka, 2006. "Assessment of emissions scenarios revisited," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 7(3), pages 137-173, September.
    5. Strachan, Neil & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2008. "Hybrid modelling of long-term carbon reduction scenarios for the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2947-2963, November.
    6. Pye, Steve & Sabio, Nagore & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "An integrated systematic analysis of uncertainties in UK energy transition pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 673-684.
    7. Wang, Ke & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining, 2009. "Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2930-2940, August.
    8. Kesicki, Fabian, 2013. "What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 142-151.
    9. Neil Strachan & Will Usher, 2012. "Failure to achieve stringent carbon reduction targets in a second-best policy world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 121-139, July.
    10. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.
    12. Gillingham, Kenneth & Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2008. "Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2734-2753, November.
    13. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Kram, Tom, 2011. "Comment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 644-647, July.
    14. Ditya A Nurdianto & Budy P Resosudarmo, 2014. "ASEAN Economic community and climate change," Departmental Working Papers 2014-24, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    15. van den Broek, Machteld & Veenendaal, Paul & Koutstaal, Paul & Turkenburg, Wim & Faaij, André, 2011. "Impact of international climate policies on CO2 capture and storage deployment: Illustrated in the Dutch energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2000-2019, April.
    16. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    17. Baležentis, Tomas & Butkus, Mindaugas & Štreimikienė, Dalia & Shen, Zhiyang, 2021. "Exploring the limits for increasing energy efficiency in the residential sector of the European Union: Insights from the rebound effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Morgan Bazilian & Patrick Nussbaumer & Hans-Holger Rogner & Abeeku Brew-Hammond & Vivien Foster & Shonali Pachauri & Eric Williams & Mark Howells & Philippe Niyongabo & Lawrence Musaba & Brian Ó Galla, 2011. "Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 2011.68, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Luca Gerotto & Paolo Pellizzari, 2021. "A replication of Pindyck’s willingness to pay: on the efforts required to obtain results," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(5), pages 1-25, May.
    20. Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Xia, 2013. "Reform of refined oil product pricing mechanism and energy rebound effect for passenger transportation in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 329-337.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon pathways Low-carbon economy CO2 reductions;

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:6:p:3067-3077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.